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secretary of state and president had foresight to make our system work. the reagan era, tax reform of 1986. we look back and see it could have been better, but it was an achievement for democrats, republicans, for them to work together. people thought it was impossible to get done. the artistry of politics is spirited debate and problem solving. the bush era and obamacare economics and the automobile industry -- those are examples where both parties worked.
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in the obama era and the affordable health care act of 2010 seems to have more legs under it than it did a few days ago. in a remarkable collaboration begin congress and the white house, but now the supreme court as the third branch. it was a remarkable contribution. it is too early to digest what the role of it was. my point is let us remember that on occasion not every day and not every year and not every legislative -- usually there are two or three rather significant steps forward and are
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progressive and that serve the common interest. that does not mean that problems have been neglected that great, inequality, in particular. -- that to create inequality in particular. we look at the opportunity. we tried to bring that about through legislation. we have a state legislator in the room from colorado. the person has been a fighter for minorities and immigrants. we salute him, michael johnson, for his work in that effort. the obama administration's made additional steps. i think both leaders are trying to figure out how to respond on
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immigration to make sure we can have people come to this country, but also have the opportunity to live a decent life. i want to say a word or two about the splendid talks that are given yesterday in. >> he has several books. we are pioneering works in political science. he is largely correct that the american people have more in common about issues than many of the leaders in congress. there are issues that divide us. they get soft and we move onto other issues. a study that i have just completed in colorado politics,
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we found statewide respondents -- there are about 20% of what we call principal conservatives, who would never wrote for a democrat, tea party conservatives. they are counterbalanced by maybe a dozen or 12% of what may be printable liberals. they rushed and listen to rachel m-- watch and listen to tachel rachel maddow. that is at most 20% on one side. most are pragmatic, pragmatic liberals, pragmatic
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conservatives or moderates who are willing to split the ticket and carefully make decisions. there is a large room in the middle. read the last three paragraphs of a book that is going to press in a week or two. it echoes a little bit of what both the arenas of research find nationwide. the last paragraph says -- most people in colorado are not on the extreme right or left. they are not orthodox or rigid. they do not rule out of the views of good ideas that are held by other parties. some politicians may be polarized. most people from colorado are relatively small liv moderates.
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they understand politics is needed, and politicians bring about compromises. independent voters play a large role in a state like colorado. they agree on many more policy matters then there are divisions. they want a better colorado. they want to come together to fight forest fires and to make for better roads and a better higher education system. the higher education system is embarrassingly starve to -- starved. person should is desirable. people have differing sensibilities as well as the views about the relative importance of liberty, equality, and social justice.
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politics comes about because society has to make choices about how to solve problems. there'll always be disagreement. humans could sharpened. most of colorado's political leaders will family debate about policy challenges without becoming disagreeable or mean- spirited. there are some exceptions. for the most part, people are willing to talk and debate. politics in a spirited debate, compromise and problem-solving are the artistry in a constitutional to receive. we should cherish and celebrate, and we should shout out to those are effective artists. politics is a performing arts.
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when me add one other theory -- the change comes about in this country were often from the bottom up than from the top down. that is to say, when we want to have women's rights, very rarely is it to have an american president or majority leader in congress lead the women's suffrage movement. it usually comes from the bottom up and takes decades and several elections. it usually takes some of agitators', who will star stuff up. people who could not get elected. this is to left and right. tax reform has come about often from angry people on the right who challenged things in california, like proposition 13, which captured the interest of
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governor reagan and brought about certain tax reform. issues of environmentalism. no president was a leader in the environmental movement. the only person who may have been in at one for act two leader -- if you see a gun in the wall in act one, it will go off in act three. if you look hard, we should not give credit to most president for solving problems and saying lincoln sought slavery. lincoln did not believe in the abolitionist movement. he had 15 ideas about slavery. he was late when it came to what should be done. there are movements.
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mothers against drunk driving. that is not left or right. i do not necessarily agree with everything they believe in. it was a bottoms up movement -- one of her family members was killed by a dui incident. she went to city hall, and got no response. she got to other people who were in office. they said, we take this very seriously. there was light sentencing. within a matter of -- she went from being an act one agitator to a woman who decided she would get other mothers and baulked. eventually, madd was -- if you
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were running for office in the 1970's or 1980's. there would always be a table of mothers against drunk driver with pictures of their relatives who have lost their lives and information about the white censusing -- light sentencing or none. this issue got up to the white house to reagan, who was against federal regulations, except the mothers for truck driving -- drunk driving wanted to raise the drinking age. he tagged onto legislation. places like montana have to raise the drinking age to 21. he was nominally against regulation, responding to and ideologically neutral group that wanted to bring about some change.
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if we want to alter things, we need groups. repeople most of the time will respond if there is welling up from beneath. they are after a while the representatives of our system. i want to ask our guests to speak about the taxation -lements of the simpson
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bowles. a lot of people probably endorse the general concepts of a grand bargain or compromise and which spending and tax exemptions are brought to the table. this is something america is not good at. our constitution is not good at focusing something as large as that. we tried that in the tax reform act of 1986. a compromise version commercial. it was a step forward. we are talking about something much more comprehensive and much more needed. i would love to hear about that. what is my time? five minutes? we expect a lot from american president.
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we force them into saying, i will be a united -- united, not divider. i will change the way washington works. i will change the way lobbying is done. when he gets going, he said he will change the way the world works. everyone who listened to the rhetoric had to have an uneasy stomach. we knew enough about washington, d.c. to know that you're not one to change it very much. on day one, you're one, lobbying doubled in size. economic stimulus money became available. more people wanted more money. presidents often are very visible. we know we need hamiltonian energy in the american
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presidency to make our complicated system worked in a way to achieve resulting ends. we need hamilton energy. retried after watergate to have a weaker presidency. four years ago, this month, watergate occurred. the presidency was bruised by a variety of crimes. there are efforts to rein in the american presidency. by a lot of noble people. it did not work. we knew that we need our system to work a presidency and a cabinet and some hierarchy that a emergencies.r version see
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we read strengthened the american presidency and had ignored a lot of constitutional constraints on budget matters as well as the war powers resolution of 1973 and similar efforts we are trying to force president. that is not a happy story. president probably have too much power in the age of drones and secrecy. presidents are usually affected during crises, honeymoon years and when there is high popularity and prosperity. presidential popularity and the american people is fascinating. we lose confidence in president rapidly. truman lost 50% of support in
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public opinion over a three-year period. lyndon johnson lost 30%. nixon lost 40% over a two-year period. carter became unpopular in his last term. his own party challenged him. george hov bush-- h.w. bush, one from 90% public approval to 35 per cent in one year. -- 35% and one-year perio. obama started off with 53%, but he began with 50 -- 65% during his honeymoon time. now he is at 38%.
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obama enjoys more public approval ask congress, more than the supreme court. more support than public schools, banks, and a slew of other institutions. why are we so tough on presidents? we put on them would -- what we should be doing. we want them to unite us. it is a tough position to unite us. they have to make tough decisions on budgetary decisions. whoever gets elected in november will have to address the fiscal cliff and the economic decisions. well that made them popular? probably not in the short term. any time in natural disaster
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occurs or a recession occurs, or we do not like a war, as we did not like the vietnam war, who do we blame? we blame the person at the top of the pyramid, the american president. we are tough on president. we tire of presidents. we are impatient. presidents will respond if we, the people, care about issues, the values we talked about earlier and to recognize that we have to help point the way. we want leaders to leave us in new directions. most of the gimmicks that are suggested to change the presidency or the election systems are liabilities.
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i agree with professor rosen, who suggested the proposed line item detail or for constitutional amendments are an illusion, just like the illusion of entitlements for -- term limits for congressmen. we have a term limit for the american presidency. also, for the supreme court. term limits for congress to make no sense. we have term note now. the initial research evidence is power transfers to lobbyist, to the executive branch, to the governor. power moves. there are few reforms that i
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support. in anchorage -- in correct opening of the election process similar -- more people can vote. i am against the voter suppression. we should have a boat king holiday, voting by mail. -- bolting holiday, voting by mail. i like the idea of we may have a filibuster percentage requirement lowered to 55. we lowered it from 67 to 60. it may help out. we could get a compromise on things of that order. most of the changes we need are changes in values. who are we as a people? what do we want to achieve?
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do we want to be an inclusive nation? what kind of tax reforms and entitlement reforms would be fair and balanced and makes sense for the kind of a country we aspire to be over the next century? thank you very much. tom.hank you, a our last speaker is a professor of science at stanford and a senior fellow at the hoover institute. this is his second time with us. we were so impressed with him at the first time. we were compelled by his message. we cannot wait to get him back. he has been elected to be in national academy of
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sciences. his groundbreaking work brings him back again. his culture wars' made him a nationally recognized expert on politics. mo fiorino. or.thank you, govern i had to wait to hear what people would be saying. i will try to draw some threat between this because we heard today. -- france between -- threads between the speakers with her today. most of these we have discussed
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have been disappointments. there is good literature on this that concludes they do not make much difference. in california, we have those kinds of things. they are like keeping squirrels out of your house our garden, they will find a way in. they will find a way around these rules. if you have more competitive representatives, you will elect more moderate representatives. there is literature on this going back in time.
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if you are only having nine% choosing their nominees, you end up with the same kind of extreme candidates. it is one of these reforms that is good in and of itself. the notion that elected officials get to choose their own constituents is perverse. we need to have a more nonpartisan-oriented mission. it will not have an impact on the problems we face. there is literature on term limits. you have to make judgments. that is a negative judgments. california, they move around. they go from the house to the senate, senate to the house. they are always running for reelection. they are always looking ahead.
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it has made depended on interest groups worse. money is the big one. the anecdote has been mentioned a couple times. the precise picture -- picture -- procter and gamble spent more money advertising in the year than the entire electoral cycle. it is like how many people are watching rush limbaugh. harvey referred to the in dodge and 80 -- public interest
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groups as soon one way causation. the process is more complicated. after a congressional election, italic of the top 10 phrases in the house of representatives. in the top 10 races, several of the people lost the election. everyone else ones by about a 52%. -- everyone went by about a 52%. it is the anticipation of what will happen that make some raise money. donors give to people they expect to win. you do not have a lot of money -- you do not win because you have a lot of money. scott walker and -- the democratic party could have done more money into that race.
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they made a calculation they would not win. he had a lack of money because they expected him to lose. diminishing returns. the more you spend on something, the less impact he will kick if you go up. in these swing states, there will be ads that say if obama and romney have a certain amount to run as, that will be affected. they are wasting a lot of the money they spend. the debate on the popular saw it presents the american public is stupid. children learn the difference between commercials and serious stuff when they are four years old. just because she won as, you
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will win an election is been customary to the american public. -- is on complementary to the american public. crack appealed to our emotions in a powerful way. craig appeal to our emotions in a powerful way. spending so much time on a campaign funds is not the way to gut -- go in reform. equality is important. if i have been one of obama's political advisers, i would have said, the first thing you do is indict every wall street person you can. make the perp walks.
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the american public is upset. the people who played by the rules screwed. the people who screwed us are getting bonuses. from the political side a lot of the toxic attitude is americans are convinced this whole catastrophe is the wrong people who were rewarded are the wrong people who got punished. i sympathize. the tax system -- harvey should address some of this later. labor is not mobile. they cannot take off and go to sweden. international -- we look at these issues.
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from an american parochial prescriptive -- perspective, we look at a problem and says what about the united states it that makes it a problem? it is crawling around the world. it is growing. globalization. we tend to focus on things that are minor factors while ignoring the things that are bigger out there, some of which we can control or tried to ameliorate their impact. civil society. we do not have the kind of system that many of the screw up with where you had strong associations outside of government.
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we grew up -- every town had a rotary or farmers' association. these things have gone by the boards in most communities. we do not have this rich layer of civil society in between government and the ordinary people. many of these people think there is a tension between governor -- government and civil society. in europe, they have never had this kind of infrastructure. the government are strong. people rely on governments to take care of the problems they face. in philanthropy -- americans give away more than your opinions do. europeans figure that is the government's job. you can criticize us in a lot of ways. the fact that we do not have a
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better government makes us more self-reliant. tom cronin is an optimist. i hope he is right. the darkest night is before the dawn. the words i feel, maybe that means the closer the turnaround is. he talks about the presidency. those were a proper remarks. the disappointment people feel with the obama presidency is that expectations were set so high. there was the sense of turning the corner with change. we get the same old. i did not have enough time to get through the slides. there is period of indecision at the end of the 19th century. no party had full control of the government for more than two years for a 20-year period.
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when you look at these polls about presidents, the great ones were great during periods of unified control. often, 14 years, the party controlled everything. they usually come from that period of divided control. were they pour presence because of the conditions -- poor presidents because of the conditions? we shall not lose track of the context. we are in a tough year. all governments have a tough time taking things away. it is good to give things away. how much? who gets it? when you have to take things away, all governments have trouble. it is happening everywhere.
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in europe, whether it is parliamentary. we are in a situation with entitlements, debts adn government have to take things away. we are in for tough times. i hope that is wrong and we have a sudden burst of economic growth. i do not see it coming. we are in for tough times. >> this ends the part of this morning's program. we will have a dialogue between the speakers. thank
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as it gets ready for the delegates to arrive this coming weekend in tampa florida. about 60,000 people expected during the week at the convention and putting delegates, national media and tourists. republican party says this is the single largest media event outside of the olympic games. the weather could impact the convention next week according to the recent reports from
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meteorologist hurricane ike cizik could hit florida by monday. national hurricane center latest reports noted today the tropical storm is getting better organized as it nears the u.s. coast. so far hurricane warnings and watches are in place for the areas that include parts of the dominican republic, puerto rico and u.s. virgin islands.
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>> they felt the president was not going to be a strong defender of american values and principles. human-rights come democracy, free trade, free enterprise, those words of apology and a seat and i think have emboldened those who find a weakened enemy. >> what would calvin coolidge to? the vermont native was president from 1923 to 1929. dartmouth college hosted a discussion on what advice president coolidge might offer today's candidates. you'll hear from former vermont governor howard dean as well as a panel of economists. this was hosted by the calvin coolidge memorial foundation and
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dartmouth business school. it's about an hour and a half. >> thank you all for coming. you know, we were going to call this panel what mr. coolidge would tell mr. obama, but then it struck us mr. coolidge was singularly short on his words. you probably heard that famous story that this reporter went up to him and said mr. coolidge, i made a bet that i could hear you say three words, and he looked at him and said you lose. [laughter] we had mr. coolidge talking to mr. obama our expense of president would go into this big explanation of why he was doing what he was doing, and mr. coolidge might just say not, or he might say my man. so, let me take just a few
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minutes to frame this distinguished panel we have and as david mentioned what is unusual love of hammill is we have some of the best minds in the country but they are not just experts in the field. they played the role in public policy. so, nobody takes to make public policy so that is i think what is going to make this panel so exciting. but i wanted to tell you that if you learned about an hour from here you would come to the village of plymouth knox where calvin coolidge was born and if you happened to go on the fourth of july which i would urge all of you to do, you would find a crowd gathering by the general store in this village that looks as it did 100 years ago. the would-be visitors and tourists and they would be gathering run by president coolidge's dhaka the to father
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and after awhile you might know his small, guard from the vermont national guard that would appear the white house sent. as you know, calvin coolidge was the only president born on the fourth of july and after a while the color guard leaves this group across the road into the cemetery where there are a line of tombstones and you would be hard pressed to know which belong to calvin coolidge because unless you saw the wreath from the white house and the bugler plays and it's a very moving ceremony, but i mentioned that only to give you an idea that this president became president when president harding died it took him four hours to know the president died. wih a the kerosene lamp, so just to give you a picture of the timese
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nhere was no internet, there were no interstates at that point.hat calvin coolidgecome on coolidgee marines to nicaragua and he had to use a secondhand german folk are to provide air support. it was a very different time. the tools he had to work with her rudimentary, coast-to-coast radio was a novelty band. but the country had come out of a war, come out of a recession. and what i want to tell you was during the coolidge years, he turned the economy around and it started to grow at 4% a year. national unemployment was peaked at 25% in some cities. wright, 25% came down to 4%. the stock market was rising from
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the top marginal tax rate was handed down to 24%. and think of the tools he had to work with. no radio, internet, facebook, twitter. how can anyone work without twitter? so let me take you forward now to today, right? so we have deemed a situation where the economy seems to be in the doldrums. but now the word is interconnected to the 7 billion people of the world are interconnected. nothing can happen anywhere without something happening elsewhere. we have all the tools of instant communication. twitter, facebook, internet, the tools that calvin coolidge used were prehistoric compared to the tools that we use today. so why is it then that that president was able to do these things and we are struggling? right, this is a question a
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common coolidge memorial foundation puppy training center and that is the question we pose to the piano that i'm about to introduce you to today. so that is just to frame the topic of the panel. so i'm going to introduce this panel from my far right down. superstar but are faster matthew slaughter. professor matthew slattery's associate dean of the mba program and professor of management at the tax school of business. he's also currently a research associate at the national euro of economic research chemist senior fellow at the council of foreign relations. member for the academic advisory board for tax policy forum and academic advisor to the delurk center cross investment from a
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member of the u.s. department of history committee on tax policy forums. served as a member of the national council of economic advisers and executive office of the president affiliated with the federal reserve board, international monetary fund from the national academy of sciences. he received a specialist degree summa cum laude phi beta kappa from university of notre dame and doctorate at the massachusetts institute of technology. governor howard dean, who all of you i'm sure no, six term governor of vermont, which by the way is the second longest turned than any governor served in vermont. he currently works as a part-time independent consultant , focusing on areas of health care, early childhood development come alternative energy and grassroots politics
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around the world. as a former dnc chairman of presidential candidate. dean is founder of democracy and also serves on the board of the national democratic institute where he focuses in southeast europe and china. dean created and implemented the 50 state strategy and is credited with helping democrats make historic gains and of course he used the internet in the tools and pioneered a nose. he graduated from yale and a ba in political science and received his medical degree from albert einstein college of medicine in new york city. he cracked this internal medicine and shelter, vermont. mr. roger brinner is partnering chief economist of the parthenon group, global strategy consulting firm headquartered in
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baltimore, london and bombay. he spun on its expert economists come articulate analyst at the u.s. international economy. he has he has many long-term relationships with corporate clients on issues relating to the strategies, market growth in the pricing equity valuation. dr. brinner extras include positions at businesses, academic and government institutions. dr. brinner received a ba from kalamazoo college and phd in economics from harvard. and last but not least, professor douglas irwin is the robert e. maxwell professor of arts and sciences and department of economics at dartmouth college. and that economic historian and he will open our panel and a moment. he's the author of trade policy disaster, lessons from the 1930s can't particularly pertinent to the topic today entitling protectionism, the
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great depression and other books. he's also working on a history of u.s. trade policy from colonial days to the present. as a research associate at the national bureau of economic research, also served on the staff of the president's council of economic advisers and the board of governors of the federal reserve system. he has a phd in economics with distinction from columbia university. so what we ask these tenement gentleman to do is take a few minutes and give his opening remarks. at 10 of which we may engage in some discussion amongst ourselves or we may open it up to questions from you. so professor irwin, me ask you to start. if you come to the podium, it will make it easier for c-span. [applause] >> well, good afternoon. my role is to set the stage for
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the panel that will follow and talk a little bit about the economy of the united states the 1920s, presidents coolidge role in the economy during that period and perhaps raise one or two analogies that the economy of the 20s versus what we have today. you might've heard the phrase, the roaring 20s as a description of the economy during the 1920s and actually that's largely true. it is untrue with respect to one sector come to in a moment. as the introduction ofa, economic growth is really strong during the 1920s. 4% or so. there was a major recession in 1920 and 21 but for the rest of the 1920s and was fairly smooth sailing. also technological change. a lot invented in recent decades really became imprinted on the u.s. market. for example, the number of houses that had electricity rose from 35% in 1922 mike 70% by the end of the decade.
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the number of cars in the united states returned 6 million in 1919 to 23 million by the end of the decade. newspaper -- radio became widespread in american households and this is thought to be the death of newspapers, something we hear about today. now, president coolidge presided over this economy, not to say he was possible for it. in fact, he did little to interfere during this period, but there was a few blips in the road. one was a mild recession in 1927 and one of the reasons, not the only, but the one with the henry ford decided to shut down all the ford plans for six months during the one year to retool them to transition from the model t. to the model eight. i was wondering what would have been today a major u.s. corporation or shutting down for six months while we retool? what would be as a comic as she
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"silent cal." we've already heard one story about "silent cal." my other true story of a "silent cal" was in the white house he was asked once, how you chose pressures of the office like so many people asking for favors, ask you to do this and not. you just can't do it all. how do you cope with all these demands? said well, i listen. i don't say anything am eventually become so uncomfortable they leave. last month while i've never tried this myself, i've often thought when students coming to ask for a re-create, maybe i should invoke the "silent cal" treatment. i have yet to do so. it went as far as i know unremarked at the white house did produce a little bit of a downturn in the economy. they henry ford was not adequate for steve jobs to this day because he didn't want to do it no model changes. he resisted coming out with the
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model a pose for us to buy the market. one thing that did happen is people were so excited in anticipation that a million people turned out to get a glimpse of the new model. i don't know whether that's a half the people turned out to get it clumps of it. when i think about people waiting overnight to get the new ipod, the same thing was happening in the 1920s, owners automobiles of the time. now of course i was not the only stretch for the economy with rabid technological change. the caveat to the 1920s was of the roaring 20s is agriculture. agriculture at the time was 20% of the force was not doing well at all during this period. the story behind agriculture was turned over one demand during record levels and farmers respond to higher prices by buying more farmland, buying
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more machinery and equipment, investing in firms and expand output as they naturally would. surprisingly, prices to collapse at the end of the war and this kept the going on. he reached. what happened in 1920 and 21, farm prices collapsed by 50% and they didn't come back. it was a permanent flow. what happened as farmers very much in debt with through the entire decade of the 1920 during the massive foreclosures on property, second mortgages, high rates of indebtedness that they just couldn't deal with it and tremendous political pressure to do something about farmers during this period. some of you may have seen ken burns recent documentary aired here at dartmouth on the dustbowl. as a wonderful documentary that i do quibble with implication left in 20 minutes his films to the 1920s as agree.
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relative to 1930s. it was not agree. for agriculture. farm tek was very hardheaded. the labor force being hit with hard times i'm summer farm prices edge in combat, what to expect them them to do? asked the federal government for assistance can exactly what they did. twice in congress during 1920s, congress passed and from supporters for american farmers to target prices back to the prewar level. what do you think "silent cal" thought about this? he would give them the silent treatment because he didn't think government interference was warranted. but of course this is a nonpartisan or bipartisan effort. it was a midwestern republicans, southern democrats represented that wanted us to come of the calvin coolidge twice vetoed the legislation. what is interesting or ironic is that in vetoing the groundwork
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because the farmers said we had rejected twice, won't get anywhere with resident huger in the 29th and 30, so instead of asking for price, and for his spirit daily deceit for seeds for what later metastasize 1930 which had a lot had a lot to do a trade wars of the 1930s. so there's perhaps a lesson there up unintended consequences if you don't help at the sector, they're not going to wait. he's going to come back in the form data to support could be detrimental to the economy overall. that is a very brief sketch of what was going on in the 1920s. let me conclude by talking about two perhaps analogies with our current situation. what can we learn from this. the issues coolidge dealt with. the first one is agriculture. as we speak, congress is debating trying to pass a new
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farm bill which they do every five years. lo and behold we do with the legacy of the 1920s and 1930s because even though the farmer scott the terrace, which they later said repudiated insane to give too much to manufactures and not enough to the farm. and could help exporters as well, what we do with president roosevelt new deal was priced support and age reproductions, were third of the crop in 1933 was flouted as our notion that we somehow reduced supplies that could increase the price. the problem is not the generalized assertion. dude is overproduction, no evidence for production from past years. price supports of the 1930s was a legacy of today. we are still dealing with and this is what calvin coolidge had to say about price support at the time. government price-fixing when
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started is no justice in no one. it's an economic fallout from which the country has every right to be spared. in the 1920s and 30s come in the sector was poor relative to the rest of the economy. because they were redistributing from the rich to the poor. but there's a situation today? we are helping out agribusinesses and redistributing income from the port of the rich. that is one thing i hope congress keeps in mind in terms of the farm bill is who's getting the subsidies? of course ethanol policy is the most egregious example. as governor dean can attest, most presidential candidates had to go to iowa. i'm what you have to say? faced with farmers i support the ethanol program even though it doesn't make economic sense, environmental sense, doesn't make agricultural sense. $6 billion tax subsidy to refiners and blenders.
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we have massive tariffs on imported sugar ethanol, which is much more environmentally friendly coming from brazil. this corn farmers in dealing with that legacy. where's the other point which made, no and appeared it would be an end to subsidies. but congress is now instituting is not direct payments for farmers, the crop insurance. if you know any other commodity prices, they've been a high levels. what this means is if those prices fall as they probably will at some point, guess who is on the hook? everyone in this room and everyone watching this broadcast. so no justice, no end. coolidge was present in predicting not. second point, just as in the 1920s, we have some econo and society to his difficulties for structural change. here are things easier in the 1920 sickest most structural change between agriculture and shrinking the culture of moving
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labor into the manufacturing sector and services sector. coolidge had it easier because the economist karen rapidly. much easier to transition from one sector to another when creating jobs and you can facilitate the transition as difficult as it may be. were faces today is another transition, not from agriculture and services. the sector is small in terms of employment, as is the manufacturing sector. that is good news because that comes out because of privacy sectors. we produce more manufactured goods than we ever have before. we produce more farm goods. we just don't need people to do it because we advanced to launch a time intensive methods. consider structural changes within the structure to more certain jobs are obsolete because of new technologies, weatherby bank tellers because of atm machines, or readers because of kiosks that will soon appear because of tables for
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your order by tapping the screen, rather than telling a person what to get for you. not making this transition will be very difficult one with a stagnant economy that's not creating jobs. so i think the challenge for current and next president is much more difficult than the one by calvin coolidge in the 1920s. on that rather somber note, alternate over to the next panelist. [applause] >> that was pretty somber. i also did a little research about president coolidge and he's identified with small government conservative. he backed that up by keeping federal spending fairly flat. now, our next president is likely to reside where the federal databases by 40%. that is even with some action taken that congress is currently
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envisioning. we're in a path that everyone but washington does is unsustainable and we don't seem to find a bipartisan middle that can tackle it. we have commission after commission that's bipartisan, that comes out of sensible recommendations have been against torpedoed by both parties. part of the reason why we can't have any bipartisan agreement i think is fair at dean in washington on the basis and it does rather than facts. there are things they believed they just simply aren't true. i have two daughters, both of the science background, once a pediatrician was a phd organic chemists. and they told me the internet first became popular that if you searched for roger brinner, but you found us a quote, plural and anecdote is not big on. last night i set that up to cut
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sometime in the early 80s, just made it up and that scientists use to bash one another when their presentation actually isn't exactly. so let me bash some populist myths that are not based on fact. one theme of this election coming up this certainly class warfare. in the end of the american dream. there is this feeling -- the assertion that middle-class incomes are shrinking and that this middle class is doing far worse than it has in the past. precious absolute falsehood. not a shred of evidence from many statistical agency in washington. they just make it up in the media and the politicians read the media and follow it. another myth is that the tax legislation reagan, clinton and bush benefited the rich and the expense of the middle class in the lowest income groups.
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nothing could be further from the truth and i'll share with you facts are not. first of all, let's talk about this poor middle class. it turns out that their incomes if you look at the u.s. divided from top to bottom, turns out the groove three from business cycle peak to business cycle over the last 40 years has been almost identical. 1.5% per year compounded annual growth year after year, decade after decade, no deviation maker of the citizen power, republicans, democrats, would we are talking about would translate into higher pay, higher income and the middle class is doing just fine. those numbers i cited are for the second, third and fourth of the five quintiles. what about the bottom? they do have the lowest growth, but it's still positive.
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and the growth over the last business cycle is about the same as the previous. they only had incomes rise by about half% a year. and the top portrayal or quintile as always is rising at about 4% a year. so the gap is getting bigger. the pie is being displaced in similar proportions and the pie is growing. this notion i've heard the president talk about 50 issue today is not about growth, but about redistribution. it is clearly based on this false premise that the middle class is suffering and the rich are the beneficiaries. part of that of course is a story about personal income taxation. it turns out if you do look at the bush and reagan tax cuts with some changes in the middle by president clinton, what you find is the bottom to quintiles of the population, that people
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with the lowest 40% of taxable income actually remove from the taxpayers to net recipients of the earned income tax credit, both quintiles, not just in total, both the bottom and second from the bottom quintile went from being taxpayers to check recipients. returns are filed, they get a check back a notch in the government. but about the middle class? actually had its tax burden cut by 40% to 50%. what about the top to quintiles? or tax burdens were almost unchanged in total. what was done first by a bacon and then amplified by bush was to create this very large zero bracket because taxable income to get it to a certain level and then a smart piece of bipartisan policy, instead of raising the
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minimum wage, they created an earned income tax credit, which says the market isn't really working to generate a living wage at the bottom end. rather than raising the minimum wage and forcing people out of work because of create automated teller machines and parking lots in new dispenser of soda at a convenience store with a fast food restaurant, both are going to do is say the government, if you're working hard enough and you're trying because you've got the wage, we will match part of that. that's it the earned income tax credit is. smart bipartisan legislation, but that is the reduced and taken it so that now and 2010, 45% speed zero federal income tax actually cut a check back here before the break in years
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his 19. at the end of the reagan years who is 25%. at what the bush tax cuts, which expended vast, it went up to 40%. so, it would be useful within these debates in washington there is actually a fact, just now and then. i look at the ibm can see the shocked looks, like how could i've been told so many lies for so many years by reputable newspapers? ..
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they didn't come to one another's aid on a proud basis. they are in recession and it is impacting us. so when i talk about the need for a move to budget balance, what i have in mind are gradual adjustments coupled with long-term fixes and entitlements. we are going to have to realize that the current promises we make and the cap. the vice chairman of the concord coalition started by two senators, tsongas and rugman, different parties. they said during the reagan years, this doesn't make sense. we have got to do something about it. finally during the '90s we got to surpluses again so i am and anti-deficit hawk, but i am a -- and by the way the coalition has its membership highly concentrated in what age group?
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senior citizens. why? we are saying cut social security, fix medicare, do things like that. the senior citizens say, my grandchildren's standard of living is at risk and less we do -- it's the only responsible thing to do so we do need to address that. our major federal health care health care programs in 1972 were 1% of gdp. they are 5% headed for 8% of our total national income. we have got to have some incentives that are put in place. douglas was referring to coolidge's philosophy and that the quote from this farm legislation period. he said business must stand quote on an independent aces because quote government
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controls cannot be divorced from political control. talking about agriculture, but today i am sure he would extend it and say we should modernize and reduce costs read and regulate prices. that it sounds like what we need to do in health care. in fact, if you look at our post-war experience in health care, and i'm actually going to post the charges or you can go to the coolidge web site to see. and when you look at national health as a share of our national wallet, it goes up -- it's not a steady movement. it's every three to five five for sometimes 10 years. the federal government decides to get more generous, and the subsidization of our youth and guess what? if somebody else is going to pay for it we are going to take another pill every day and we are going to go along with what are doctor says.
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but let's do things that aren't really necessary. we need to as they say then the cost curve, the smart about what medical tools and services we use and pay for them to the extent is affordable out of our own pockets of those are the kinds of things that i think cal might have thought about in today's environment. thank you very much. [applause] >> well, thank you roger. there's a lot to disagree with in the question period. i do want to say couple of things before i start out talking about president coolidge. it is very introduced that i was introduced as a second longest-serving governor in vermont which is actually true. most people make the mistake and
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entries me is the second longest sitting governor in the history of the state of vermont. that is not true. i served 12 years. many of you may know that, because you are vermonters and i'm particularly delighted, vermont is an independent republic for 14 years before it joined the nation. it's seeded from great britain and we were not allowed to join the state until 1791 and of course very much of that time new york claimed half of us in new hampshire claimed the other half of us. it's a little-known fact we could have course agree and what our capital for the 14 years and we played twice our capital in what is now new hampshire figuring that if we put our capital in new hampshire than new hampshire would stop trying to get our land. we had one in charleston and i frankly forgot where the f1 was so i served as 12 years as the government of vermont. thomas chipman who was the governor for a lot of the time during the republic served 17, when you're terms that aid in the republican nine as a state
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governor in vermont. so just a little piece of vermont history. i have actually, what i was called to ask to do was some passion to defend calvin coolidge because he is after all a vermonter and the homestead is actually beautiful down in plymouth which i have been to a couple of times. and actually he is not as hard to defend from a progressive democratic -- as you would expect. it is true that he was actually a free-market kind of guy and said a lot of those things but there were some other things about him that many people don't know. he had an illustrious political career, a very decent person. he was known probably as breaking the boston police strike and ronald reagan quoted him when he broke the air traffic control union in 1981. but what is not known about coolidge is that he once said
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this about industry. we must humanize industry or the system will break down. he was also when he was in the state legislature president of the state senate he was asked to lead a committee to broker and to mediate the strike and he did so and both sides agreed to the proposal that he championed as the chairman of the committee which was essentially a significant wage increase for the workers. he was extremely pro-civil rights both for catholic, jewish and african-americans. all of them of course were persecuted at that time. that was a time in america when the kkk was very powerful and most of us here in yankee land think the ku klux klan was designed as an organization to persecute african-americans. the truth was the kkk was first invented in the midwest to persecute catholics and then jewish and african-americans and
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calvin coolidge, and they also played a big significant role in politics in the united states. people were afraid to publicly contradict them and coolidge had no problem supporting and being very clear about the rights of minorities. one of the extraordinary things that he did in 1924 was giving a american indians full citizenship rights which doesn't sound like much today but given that in our history of what we did the american indians that was a major step forward. he was also a very big supporter of women's suffrage which was quite an issue at that time as well. if you know anything about grace his wife who is exactly the opposite of calvin coolidge who is outgoing and the life of the party, i suspect she probably had a fair amount to do with that. but if you think about this -- how many of you are for -- from vermont, residents of vermont? about half. this is part of the vermont character. people don't understand much about vermont.
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that understandably we are so liberal today and labor were so conservative. we didn't have a -- 109 consecutive years. i don't think we have changed that much. what we really are is a libertarian with a very strong feeling of communitarianism which sounds like a contradiction in terms. how can you be a libertarian and a communitarian at the same time? even today you see that where people argue for three hours about whether they should lay out $150,000 for a new greater or can they share it with the next town over? we are used to making our decisions. we are not used to having government tell us what to do but we are used to doing things for ourselves together. we never could have recovered from what happened a year and a half ago with irene had it not been for that communitarian streak and libertarian streak and that's what made calvin coolidge what he was. i think health and coolidge has anything to say today to our president or president -- i
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would say get with the program. it was basically that when you get into politics people will call you a demagogue. don't pay any attention but don't demagogue. and don't be afraid to do what you have to do. basically his tenure was marked by willingness without as it says in the oath of office for anybody serving in vermont without fear or favor of anyone. that was the kind of person he was. so this is almost going to be coming up fairly soon on the 100th anniversary. he was an extraordinary guy and he really was a son of vermont. i quoted this in one of my non-girl addresses first i really urge you to read the quote on the net that he said, the angst he said about vermont and extraordinary courage of the
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people there. it's a wonderful quote, bit of a long quote at when you go home i wish she would google calvin coolidge and that quote will come up, calvin coolidge in vermont or calvin coolidge and vermont. he said what i think is the truest thing that anybody has said about the state of vermont and is consistent with the matter who is run the place were of the last 200 years. the ellen brotherson were very colorful had lots of -- [inaudible] a lot of interesting things about vermont. the last one before eyes stick it to roger ever so gently to get the conversation going. there is an overwhelming factor here. frank smallwood served in the legislature as a state senator. he wrote a book called the biography of -- should be mandatory reading for anybody interested not only in vermont that the american revolution. thomas chipman like many
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immigrants from connecticut and we still have a lot of those but their incomes are higher these days, he had an eighth grade education and like any of the people want to see if they could make a better life. land prices were getting pretty high in connecticut and that many people as an eighth-grade eighth grade education he was very crafty and very smart and every time the hampshire the new york assembly would claim that they were going to exercise the governor to hampshire -- would grant to grants for each piece of land so that they could double up on the money and this was the way things went and colonial america. so when the new hampshire legislature and the new york edges later started to begin to exercise their claims, chipman would send a few of his buddies to montréal to go out drinking
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and make sure the revolutionaries spies found out and of course montréal at that time was british territory. the british tactics of the revolutionary war were to split new england off from the rest of the colonies by coming down the hudson valley which is what the saratoga and the battle of bennington and all those campaigns were about. so when word got back to washington that chipman's dragging buddies were in montréal carousing with the canadians the word would go to albany to knock off the nonsense and stop talking about land claims in vermont because otherwise the vermont makes a deal with the canadians the country is in big trouble. and they did. what chipman did was carefully maneuver these two much more in port and states to either side of us and in those days they might. so they would eventually give up their claim in the interest of the greater unity of the united states. it was an extraordinary thing
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and it's a wonderful thing to be able to look at what washington and all the players were doing through the eyes of the very small state with a group of very determined people. so let me just conclude, and we have to kick this off with a good controversy. i do disagree with roger. it is true he did not make up any statistics and he and i agree that the media often -- in the way of a good story. but it's also true that warren buffett secretary pays a higher percentage of taxes than he does. why? roger did not mention payroll taxes and they don't go down. they have gone down recently because of the 40-dollar, two-week payroll tax that obama put in but if you could put payroll into that equation, in fact going come people still pay a higher percentage of income, certainly not more taxes. the he other thing that is
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interesting, i took a bunch of print notes, the errant income tax credit with i completely agree with roger about is a good way to read -- to redistribution. it started by a guy who today would be a conservative business democrat and he couldn't get anywhere near the republican party and his name was richard maxon pat moynihan at the table. two more things. i am actually, i do agree with the notion that we have to be careful. i'm also very much of a hawk on the deficit. those of you from vermont when i served well remember when my great friend from across the river mccormick the senator from windsor was quoted in the paper as saying why do we need a republican governor when we have got being? i think those were the days before the -- so i looked at that slightly differently. [laughter] but i am a deficit hawk. i think however we have to go over the fiscal cliff.
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horrifies almost everybody in washington but i will tell you why. there's no chance we are going back to the clinton tax rates unless we do that and we need to go back to the clinton tax rates. secondly there's no chance we'll cut the defense budget unless we do that and we need to cut the defense budget. yet they are some things that will be very painful for those of us on the progressive side and it will tip us into a recession according to the congressional budget office, the most nonpartisan people in the country look at the budget and we will see a 1.3% decline for two can set of quarters in a 2.3% increase over the years. it's a very tough price but as the -- there's going to be no agreement in washington and i also agree with roger completely on it. the fact is we need to do these things. he cannot go on with the kinds of deficits we have and we have been saying that since the coalition was put together by warren buffett and paul tsongas. that was a long time and with the exception of bill clinton
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and gore the recession has gotten worse. we cannot afford it. i'm telling you that as a liberal democrat. the reason we had so many programs and when i was running the state, all the school changes and all these things, the environmental and northeast kingdom land deal is because we are a stable budget and these things were not treated as one-time expenditures that were somehow going to go away magically. when we cut taxes we cut expenses and we also played a framework for gradual expansion of the role of things that i thought needed to be done particularly in health insurance for all children. you can't do that if you don't care where the money comes from and if you're fiscally responsible. you can only do that if you have a basic fiscal responsible it sees to pay attention so when you do these things that the programs are sustainable. i think that is important i think we cannot continue to run these kinds of deficits and i don't think anything is going to get done with a harmonious agreement. i don't blame the democrats for this. they're not going to continue to
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allow tax breaks while we are cutting social security medicare. i think you can get entitlement reduction but you are going to do it by significant tax increases as well as cuts. that's only fair way to do it and i still don't think you will get bipartisan and i'm happy to see us go to the fiscal cliff to get the defense cuts. the defense contractors are very smart and out of four and 35 congressional districts they have planned, 420 of them, there a lot a lot of job so we have to do with all the problems we have with the budget. it's not just medicare and social security. social security is not that big of a problem that medicare is an enormous problem. the last thing i want to say is this. we talked a little bit about health care and i can go on about that all my. i'm not going to put if you could only make one change in health care come if you could only make one, you want to control costs, the biggest drivers in all of health care is the fact that you pay -- whether you like it or not. if you continue to have a fee-for-service system in this
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country you're never going to get health care costs under control. the republicans are talking about the market force. there are no market forces in health care. the market forces in the health care drive costs up because we get reported or doing as much as we possibly can. the more often we do the more we get rewarded. i don't think doctors are anymore -- then lawyers or teachers but incentives to infect work in all the incentives in the health care system that we are part of our to spend more and more money. the way to deal with this is to have, to get paid by the patient, not by the procedure and then left the health care system decide how they will do that. and it's happening. is happening often enough and mitt romney pioneered obama carried massachusetts and it's true in five years down the line massachusetts is doing very adjusting things including having hospital -- insurance companies. want to get integrated care into the hospital with massachusetts being one of the greatest metal their countries, once you have
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vertically integrated care and you have a payment by the patient and have actuarial from the insurance company inside the hospital you now have a mechanism to pay hospitals by the number of patients they have not been a by the number of procedures they do. the entire medical system changes to begin to report the whole medical system for wellness instead of illness and that's the only way we are going to become a grade -- if the great health care costs under control. thank you. [applause] >> you so, i've had the pleasure of listing my three distinguished panelists and i want to get into the conversation so i want to share and i appreciate the kulisch foundation for inviting us in participating tonight. spent more about the economic performance of the united states in the time of president coolidge and trying to connect that with where we are today. and it does -- there was this
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roaring period in a lot of basic indicators we looked at and there is a juxtaposition, a jarring one from where we are today in the kent. today in the ide we have about 23 million under an unemployed americans. the number of private-sector jobs we have the united states today is a little over 111 million. that's a same number of private-sector jobs we had 12 years ago. we have had no net growth of jobs in the u.s. private-sector during a period in which the labor force has grown by 15 million. and we today are sitting in the wake of a dramatic world financial crisis. we are still struggling with trying to figure out how to stabilize the economy and our financial system and we do that while we -- across the atlantic ocean while we see what is happening this hour today with greece, spain and portugal and other countries tomorrow.
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as a reflects a little bit on where we are today in contrast that with a period of president coolidge, i think if we can magically bring him to earth here and ask what wisdom would you impart to us today for the challenges the united states basis, i came out with one word which is humility. humility in two dimensions that i want us to think about. in terms of the broad issue of the political economy and i dare say the labels change and its governor dean has wisely pointed out to us where today we would replace someone like governor coolidge and which party is quite unclear given what's happened in this country. so my word of humility that president coolidge might have today is for democrats, independents and republicans and people across the aisle both at the state and local level. so i will explain this with a quote. we have heard a few quotes from president coolidge. in early 1925 he gave the speech
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to a press association, a u.s. press association and the quote was a fun. the second half of which i think a lot of people may be familiar with. he said the following, it is probable that a press that maintains an intimate touch with the currency of the nation is likely to be more reliable than it would be if it were a stranger to these influences. after all, the chief business of the american people is business. they are profoundly connected with buying, selling investing and prospering in the world. fast last segment i want to unmount before couple of minutes to get us to the humility. one of the striking things is president coolidge stated those words coming from background that had little to do directly with business. he studied as an undergraduate at amherst, another fine school where his main course of study was philosophy and economics. not long after that he went to the study and practice of law and spent a lot of his career rising in public service. so he is not someone who had
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spent a great deal of time directly in the private sector and yet i think the quote of the chief business of the american people is business is actually very profound for this notion of humility that he brought to his office in terms of thinking about his stewardship of the u.s. economy so i want to think about humility first of all in terms of what drives economic growth. wintuk united states today are struggling with slow economic growth as rogers and others have pointed out and creates a lot of -- in terms of virtually no sustainable job growth. you look at the 1920s, and one of the reasons it was boring what was happening in economy was how innovation and technological change and new in new products and industries work so he said of the acid we didn't have twitter and the internet in the high-tech industries of them were things like electricity, automobiles, remember air travel was becoming more of a viable thing in commercial so both
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households and the business sector, the 1920s was an astonishingly innovative period in american history in the way economists look at it. you can't find any quotes of president coolidge traveling around the united states laying claim to that innovation, laying claim to that economic activity. the macroeconomic activities were a lot of basic ways we care about. gdp growth averaged 4% per year and the unemployment rate has fallen to a quite low level of around 5% so there's a regional aeration. for the overall economy things were going quite well. a a lot of what that tends to mean when economies grow quickly, innovation, we tend to get searches in income and tax revenue. part of the recent tax cuts were able to be made during that period in an environment of federal budgets were balanced during surplus for most of coolidge's period it's easy to do that when you have surges in
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tax revenue soar more recent pitt maine if you look at the late 19 '90s we had balanced budgets for a few years, the last few years of clinton's administration. part of that had to do with him and republicans as well in congress raising some marginal tax rates in some ways earlier in the 1990s. an awful lot of that had to do at the unexpected surge in productivity and united states and therefore growth in income that have to do with the i.t. revolution. that was the period where the spread of computers, netscape the first internet browser had its initial public offering in august of 1995. the second half of the '90s was was up reluctantly unexpected period were productivity growth and income growth surged and that was a big piece of what allowed the united states to come into fiscal surplus for a few years. the first thing i want us to think about with humility is an awful lot of politicians on both sides of the aisle at the federal and state level lay
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claim to a lot of economic activity that happens during their period in office and i suggest that we economists don't know a lot that one of the things we don't know a lot about is how you sustain economic growth. >> economist, scholars and practitioners have tried to unbundle this clear it has some things to do with basic federal government support for research and education infrastructure. that has an awful lot to do with the incentives given in the third, entrepreneurs, small businesses and large businesses and when you look at the united states and some of the sobering things that explain slow economic growth there is a dramatic slowdown in new business startups in america. it has to do with the global economy with a lot of global corporations more and more pictures after thinking about where they want to hire people into innovative activity and make investments is not just what we are are doing in america. is in the beyond countries because part of what has happened in the past generation we have a few billion people that have succeeded in the global economy and we are kidding ourselves in the n if we
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think we have this ordained right to good jobs and good wages. humility is one theme in terms of economic growth and i want us to think about and the historical record for president coolidge proves that. the second dimension of policy humility i want us to think about is more speculative but speaks to the financial crisis that came after the rain of president coolidge and we are living in the aftermath of today. president coolidge said the american people are profoundly connected with buying, selling, investing and prospering in the world. one of the dimensions of that is what happens in asset markets and capital markets and i think one of the lessons i take from president coolidge at the time is during his period the u.s. stock market, the dow jones industrial average that measures equity prices rose dramatically and he left office kind of on the cusp of the peak of u.s. stock markets and in 1929 dadar came black monday in the crash
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and that was a peaceable contributed to the financial calamity in the real damage that we have come to know today as the great depression. we have had financial crises for centuries and we probably will continue to have financial crises for a long period after that. so i think when we think about what government can and can't do humility about how capital markets work i think is warranted today. that is not to say we don't need to have sound, aggressive regulation of capital markets but i think when i hear a lot of the policy conversations today starts from a couple of places that i don't think you're quite accurate. one is that financing is inherently evil and individuals when you think about is not to say -- but it is bowling alleys and banks and you name the industry i can find it. and the other is there's a sense today at least in the united states a lot of people are thinking about reform of capital markets. they speak as though all sort of
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crises and capital markets can be done away with if regulators are smart enough and trusting enough and that is one message i take away from president coolidge's time and again i don't know if you would read, is to have a little humility there and realize capital markets and definitions are hard things to predict and a different way to think about it from a regulatory perspective is how can we try to reduce the risk of those things when crises arrive and reduce the damage they do in the broader economy. it's a fundamentally different way of thinking about how they want to regulate capital markets. very for people and if we just get the right way of doing regulation we will do away with it forever. so that is the second dimension of humility i would want us to think about which is our country and any other struggle with the aftermath of yet another financial crisis. i don't like this back but the reality of how capital markets work is we have had crises like that for centuries. in the future we probably will have future financial crises and
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we will see what happens in europe in the coming days and months. hopefully we won't have another one but humility in terms of thinking about what drives economic growth and humility in terms of thinking about how you regulate capital markets or two things that i think are present in what i see in economic history during the presidency of coolidge have to do a lot with what we are facing today. [applause] >> thank you very much. i have one question and then the moderators prerogative i think, and that is a that the u.s., we are the most productive country on earth from what i understand and in that basically means we do more for less. the criticism is often made that companies are making all this profit that they but they are not hiring anybody. where the most productive
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country and we don't need all those people. so can you just sort this out for me? are we going to have to go through a whole generation before people start getting wealthy again and everyone is project if and what? can you help me out anyone? >> i would be much more optimistic than that. productivity growth since 1900 the u.s. has averaged 2% a year. we had a surge to around 4% of your during the information technology revolution and that matt was talking about but it's really surprising, if you go back and look at the historical statistics in the u.s., and they are actually actually reliable facts about 1870. 2% is the magic number and we managed to take the higher income with a more productive per person and by more. by buying more we created more demand. so it's not the notion of there
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is a fixed of demand and each employee is more productive and more people would be unemployed. demand keeps rising and as we are in a dative we sell not only to one another but all around the world. if you had told people that 20 years ago, looking ahead 20 years, that manufacturing jobs would be reduced by 60%, they would have said that would be a gross recession and the u.s. but in factor in that period be an employment rate in the business cycle still averaged about 5%. as you look around the world to try to understand why some nations are high-growth and some nations are loathe road on a continuum, not just year by year but over 20 or 25 years stands. what you find is that the distinguishing characteristic of bottom versus top poor tile
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countries and you can see it in the middle quartiles as well, is if you invest in people through education, more primary and secondary and more tertiary, if you invest in research and development and more capital goods, better machines and better tools for the people to work with, there is a perfect correlation between the level of investment in people, machines and knowledge and the growth rate of the country. so the growth does not destroy jobs. it creates rising incomes. in the cyclical setting, how do you ask how do we manage to get out of our current problems? that is a tough one because we have got this horrible european environment of recession that is going to be a drag on us and then howard and i disagree on how rapidly we should take the cure. i am very fearful if we have a 4% of gdp, and we are talking about the fiscal cliff equal to
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4% of our total outlay. for took that out and left without which is what would happen forever, we would have not a recession, not a great recession. we would have been even greater recession than we have now. europe has try that experiment. they have cut their spending by 1.5% of gdp and it has brought them into a situation. >> let me give governor dean a chance. >> there are other panels with economic backgrounds. i rest my case on the fiscal cliff. i think at one point, 3% consecutive drop in gdp for two quarters is not great but we have to deal with the deficit and washington is certainly not going to do it so i would stick to my guns on the fiscal cliff. i think there are two things that we have not talked about. one comment i think one is good. in in the long run but it is very painful and that is free trade. my friends in the labor hate
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free trade in the truth is free trade is good for the world. geopolitically it stabilizes people's behavior. george w. bush was first elected, people have forgotten us, a short time after he was elected one of the fighter planes was spying on the chinese coast in the chinese claim that it was in its airspace. one of their hotshot fighters crashed its fighter into our plane. our plane was disabled and their plane went down and he was killed. in 10 days, not just the crew came home but the plane was dismantled and sent home back to the united states of america. that never would have happened 20 years earlier. why did that happen? is the chinese are doing so much business with us that they can afford to provoke a major international incident and they will be much more careful than they would have been before. so i think international trade is a very good thing but it spread -- been very painful to manufacturing the manufacturing countries of the world.
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the adjustment will continue. i think we are beginning to see that you can get through that and develop different kinds of jobs in high-end jobs and i totally agree that education and so forth will be part of that. so i do think that is a permanent structural change in the american economy. we will have to make adjustments in continue to make adjustments to make it tougher. the other thing is i believe our capital systems are not working and i think it is because of the size of banks. you can do visitors and better so big that they can't take risks. he has talked about the punishment of excesses of capitalism and failure. he can't fail you can imagine the kind of mistakes and that is what is going on to this day. the banks are too big and they are big enough that they we need to bail them out than they are too big. why do i say that's? is not just their bad behavior investing in credit default swaps and all this that doesn't do much.
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85% of credit default swaps are just gambling chips were 15% is reasonable hedges. why is this a problem other than turning wall street into a gambling -- because i used to work for the biotech industry and you can't get people to invest in biotech. they can make a hell of a lot more money feeling around with credit default swaps and collateralized mortgage. and u2's change the tax code. i'm the only democrat in america who believes we have to give get right of all taxes on all capital gains in the next five or 10 years and have no capital gains whatsoever for investments of the same people will start thinking about investing their money long-term as opposed to investing in these for is financial instruments that don't do anything but create a few jobs on wall street for kids who want to drink a lot of liquor and smoke cigars. this does remind me of the 1920s and we can do better. [applause]
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>> okay, i am anxious to start taking questions from the audience so again the rules are that if you can, if you are comfortable please stand back in any case identify yourselves and keep your questions short and don't direct them all to governor dean. [laughter] >> my name is marcia reed and i live in new hampshire. i'm a state legislator. and i constantly hear the term entitlement programs, and social security is one i like to take an example of. it's not entitlement. uyghur and it. we paid into it. all our working lives, and so did our employers. everybody is worried about the future of social security for our children and our grandchildren. where's the stupid cap? why doesn't anybody ever
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consider just lifting the cap on it? >> a good question. roger do you want to have a quick shot at it? >> there are two answers. one is, not you personally that you the american public did not pay enough to afford the benefits on an actuarial basis. there are sequential pieces of legislation passed by congress who grossly increase them and promised more than the tax revenues could ever justify. finally in 1987 there was a greenspan commission, bipartisan, that reduced and postpone the retirement their retirement ages but it still couldn't do enough so the next questions raised were why not just raise the cap? social security is uniquely among plans partially designed so will what you as an individual put in has relevance to what he was an individual will take out and it is true
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that the lower income groups get a positive rate of return on that and the higher income groups get a negative rate of return on that. what you're proposing by raising the cap would just be having a tax on higher income groups to provide some other benefit. let's face it, it is just a tax to finance something that we never paid for. it is a tax. >> well, why not? our fair share of taxes. >> let me move on in the speakers will be here for a while longer but let me take another question from this gentleman here. >> i am from the government department and want to thank the panel is. i think it's been a terrific presentation and i would make one comment with reference to something that are faster slaughter said that was very important which is the role of
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technology. one of the huge drivers of economic growth is technology. i want to know how many members of the panel know that every automobile maker in europe is introducing hydrogen powered cars? hydrogen has no pollution. no co2. you make it by splitting water and it's in the united states that we developed the technology up using solar panels and a cobalt catalyst to split water, so use solar energy to split water, restore the energy in the hydrogen you'll sell to drive the car. that can be done anywhere so it's no huge cost of shipping oil all over the place and we are not spending a quarter of our fuel to buy gasoline or oil
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from people who hate us. which is sort of a stupid thing to do. so mad, we are using so much gas in washington we don't have any left which is obviously not the right answer but go ahead. [laughter] >> no, so that innovation is, few would have said tommy which which evicted technologies would create 20 million jobs in the united states in that last 10 years, my honest answer is i have no idea. the anecdote i will give is, think the story is true that a lot of microsoft officials when netscape was created in doing a special offering did a lot of thinking internally on this thing called the inch and it. do we think this will fundamentally change what do at microsoft and their initial answer was no we don't think it does. my point is humility as i am not smart enough and i dare say most
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of us won't be able to predict what will be the next technology. when i hear governor dean, one of the many wise things we have heard on all accounts things that matter for growth in ways that are difficult to quantify and predictor things like can we set up a tax and capital markets system so there's a lot of risk-taking in biotech, clean tech moguls, solar and wind and industries that i don't even know will exist tomorrow. i feel a lot better about the prospects for the future if i saw a lot of things have been washington and other states in america to support that kind of dynamism. roger statistics are great at my friendly amendment amendment is there is no love physics that says the growth in u.s. -- and a great education matters. i was born in 1969. to high school graduation rate in america during my lifetime has not budged at all. in sharp contrast to the 20 century where the high school graduation rate in 1900 was about 5% and today we are still at about 75% so is the subtle
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things that collectively i call called humility that matters if we are trying to create those opportunities. [inaudible] >> can we wait for the mic? >> it is a happening now. be that may be and i'm happy to talk to it after the panel will let take another question in the back please. the gentleman and then the lady right after that. [laughter] >> not for long. better enjoy it for now. >> the gentleman's point on hydrogen is one of the things i have thought about years and years. i'd forgotten how old that technology is good half of my lifetime is how long it's been around. >> could you please identify yourself? >> my name is orrin and i live in vermont.
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probably 20 years ago or 25 years ago i asked a stock record to get me some stock in maybe one or two of the companies here that were doing the search on that. his reply was oh hell you don't want to bother with that. there is nothing there for years and years. i wish our stock workers were little more industrious and a little more reputable and a little more farther seeing. it's not just the laboratory that where the money comes from. >> is there a question there? been no. i am not one for questions. >> is their question here? the gentleman right here. >> is as it might turn. >> indeed with my apologies. >> that's okay. >> we need to get to questions very quickly.
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>> cannot just say one anecdotal thing to matt? you have mod -- matt tiabbi to blame for -- have you ever read him in "rolling stone" about correlating these financial industry to the bloodsucking squared or whatever. anyway, okay. my question is, i am the mother of two boys in their 20s. one just graduated from college at the atlantic and is working in farm and wilderness in vermont. both of them have no interest in voting or getting involved in the political system. i live in vermont, bedford. i have many dartmouth students, what's going on, are you going to vote? i am getting blank responses. so my question is, what would you tell the youth of america because everywhere i go i find them conspicuously absent in the concert halls, here come everywhere and my goal is is to
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reinvent the youth of america. i am an educator. i was educated in new jersey, excellent high school. i am fluent in spanish. i see an incredible decline. >> my question is what would you tell young people? in this coming election what would you say? what are the reasons for voting and four getting involved in the political system because they see a complete lack of -- disassociation people at have already commented that washington -- >> got it. i'm going to give in to governor dean. >> i actually have high hopes for this generation. they are renting -- reinventing america schools and they are redesigning the way everything is done. molly katchpole's --
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[inaudible] the attack on verizon to pay their bill on line. they elected obama and the only time in my lifetime and election in this country where people under 35 turned out to both. i'm not worried about young people but i do think they ought to vote and i tell them politicians may not help you much but they can hurt you so it does matter who wins. you at least ought to vote and that is part of the price of being a citizen is voting. paying taxes and voting as oliver wendell holmes said the price you pay. but i wouldn't give a little bit long song and dance. it's repulsive what's going on in washington and i don't believe -- lame people for being disgusted and as winston churchill once said democracy is the worst form of government except for every other and i wouldn't want to try some of the others. i think they have got to vote in its part of their duty but i think they will make their mark
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in america doing things outside the political and reorganize the whole lot of things that need to be reorganized and won't have to worry about institutional failures of wall street and politicians because they can create. they can get on the net and find printer people to agree with them without it lyrical front. >> i agree with everything governor said. tuck students at dartmouth foist a lot of concern and that sense. the economists respond it's kind of a mess but the opportunity for you to make a difference could be greater because the world is desperate for leaders both in the private and public are still a few your aspiration to become a person that can change the world frankly being in this impairment offers a tremendous opportunity. it's hard but a tremendous opportunity. >> and by the way i asked them
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to recall counting -- counting chads. remember that in florida? a couple of votes may have made a difference. see my name is many. i don't live in vermont but i eat a lot of fine organic vermont cheese. [applause] i have a question for everyone. my question really relates to the fiscal policy in the u.s. and when i think about it the saying which comes to mind is it's not enough they succeed, your friends must fail as well. it seems that our her situation could be much worse were it not for the crisis in europe and we are the only safe haven. if you project a few years forward where people continue to see slowing down, people who buy treasuries a lot of those folks plan. how would you think of the fiscal situation of the u.s. in that context especially because i believe a lot of metrics used to judge how the middle class is faring are somewhat flawed. it doesn't take a lot of key
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ingredients into account. i don't have to look at cpi, can look at the price of education board here at murphy's or the price of organic cheese in vermont which has gone up fairly in excess of cpi so i would love to get all of your takes on this one. >> why do you rephrase the question. are we benefiting from europe's problems and are we able to float our treasury cheaper than we otherwise would be? they used to be useful for people to live in vermont or new hampshire because you probably heard the story about two people who met a bear in the woods and they said this is horrible because they cannot outrun the bear. the person said i don't have to outrun the bear, just have to outrun you. [laughter] we have what is known as an exorbitant privilege because the dollar is the world reserve currency. we are the only country i dare
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say hesitant to say this but in the history of the financial crisis who have a financial crisis and the dollar appreciates. people buy more currency. ugoda latin america asia europe if you have a financial crisis people want to sell your currency so we are living to greenland in terms of fiscal policy and we can get away with these deficits in and many countries could not. now how to deal with that. i think that does not change overnight because once again it will take another currency to be the dollar and people don't trust the euro any more. the japanese yen doesn't seem to be used around the world. the chinese r&d most people don't trust china in terms of their capital market and investment so we are going to an situation where i think we can afford to pay for it an dead if you will and a fairly low interest rate. that is why i was interested in hearing governor dean say we need this fiscal cliff sort of as a wake-up call and i think then the role is if we do have this fiscal contraction, the
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burden is on the federal reserve. monetary policy keeps economy going and that is a whole separate issue. >> let me just ask you, it is now 6:36 and we are going to finish at 6:30 but i would like to go to 6:45. is that okay for take a few moments? in the interest of time let's take a couple of questions and bind them together, select you have a question from here and perhaps a question from back there. if that is okay with the panel. >> you just brought up part of my question which is we have been talking about this cliff and the large amount of debt that this country has and how bad it is. but what happens if congress doesn't do anything? what if we don't try to shut that off a cliff in don't try to slash the budget? what's the worst thing that happens it at that level stays as it is?
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as you said this that has been a problem since paul tsongas was in the senate than that was some time ago. what happens if we keep -- >> a a point of order, congress does nothing you go off the cliff. >> so if congress does just enough to not go off the cliff but not enough to slash at down? >> okay, so let's take another question from back there. >> i have the health insurance question. it frustrates me when i see that, i don't think business has taken the opportunity under the affordable care act. and the state for don't want to put up these insurance exchanges which would then go to the federal government but it would seem to me that business in general has missed a great opportunity for hasn't forced themselves to say we want to be out of the health insurance business. is it efficient for business to decide what type of health insurance at some plays are going to have? it would appear to me with the heart -- start of the health
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insurance exchange while it may not be as efficient as a single-payer system which isn't going to occur it appears that the health insurance exchange would be a great way for business to say basically taking a defined contribution, giving employees the dollars for what they're currently paying and get themselves out of business a good well-run health insurance exchange would allow the ability, portability and it would he i think if business thought about it they would be pushing parts of our political system to really back this type of approach. >> professor irvin -- irwin cannot ask you to handle the first one, going over a cliff or anything like that and governor dean if i could have you handled that insurance question. >> the fiscal cliff, world war i and world war ii where we had to cut back on federal expenditures and predictions of economists in 1945 and 46.
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in fact there was a mild recession and once again because there was so much pent-up consumer demand the recession was mild to once again a forget the underlying fundamentals of getting our economy going -- a major recession. >> there was rationing and people couldn't buy cars and so that was all this pent-up demand. that doesn't exist today and we would be raising taxes by about 3% of income because you would lose the 2% payroll tax cut in half to 2% increase in average income taxes so you are going to walk 4% out of after-tax income from the household and you are going to cut government spending so there is no consumer to take up the slack like there was. normally, the federal reserve could step in and cut interest rates, simulate housing, have
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interest rates of zero. 1.52% has run out of ammunition to offer the fiscal cliff. >> you sound like a very good keynesian economist. also i would say the federal reserve is absolute and not out of ammunition by any stretch of imagination. >> that leads to a whole different dollar. i want to go to the insurance exchange question. >> actually what you describe is exactly what's going to happen. i believe the mckinsey report was right and democrats want to say that because it will increase federal expenses on health care. was going to happen is exactly what you describe are go small businesses wholesale will leave for for the health insurance market because small business has no business being in health care. the employment connected system in those countries a mistake. it's a historical accident and makes her businesses uncompetitive notches with india or china over labor costs but with the germans and canadians.
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their health care system goes up at the same percentage as ours does which is two to three times the rate of inflation. every time the germans spend 3.5% more in health care that gets spread over the entire economy and when we do it he gets mostly spread over the business community. this is not a way to keep our businesses competitive. what is going to happen his small businesses always struggled with this question, health care plus whatever else they do as they is they are going to pay a fine which isn't very big and they will probably give insurance -- employees insurance and guess what? if you are a restaurant and you happen to be giving health insurance which not many do they book on exchange and get a nice subsidy from the federal government to help toward insurance in they will be out of the individual market on these exchanges. ..
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resurgent protectionism against the background of the international g the global economic difficulties and another question right here. this lady in the third row qustr >> i actually work here and i have a follow-up question to governor dean'stalk. and to follow question to
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governor dean's remark about the reporting wellness. dartmouth helps connecting the system that president can set up before you ask. i was wondering if you knew anything about it, and if you do a fast server system you're talking about. not a fee-for-service come a patient basis done. >> i unfortunately don't know anything about it. >> let's get a fair question. anyone waiting for a question right there in the center. hold on, hold on, hold on. thank you. >> white river junction, vermont. a day to come back to the original comparison between obama and coolidge. i'm reminded of jean hughley to decimate outcome of the close of the presidency, which claimed the american people what two contradictory things. one, they have been increasingly the opinion of the actual performance of their presidents and other national leaders, but
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two, they want to give those national leaders more and more things to do. and that seems to me to be a fundamental difference between coolidge. this comes back to that spotters point about humility. my question is, how do you return to a state of affairs in which there's more responsibility for their own affairs and have less responsibility to the federal government in washington? >> so let's start with the resurgence of protectionism. anyone want to take a shot at that? >> i had a couple thoughts. >> for some outcome of "the wall street journal" op-ed two weeks ago was exactly on that issue. while i was not worried about it for many quarters that the financial crisis, there were worrisome signs others are beginning to intervene. the problem is that affects our exports. one of the bright parts of the u.s. economy during the financial crisis in there after
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his export keep the economy going. we always hear about imports and trade deficit, but experts have been very good at creating a lot of jobs. to the extent other countries restrict trade, they restrict export and matches with a further tent in the u.s. economy. so it's something we have to as a country address. >> i'm very worried about the rest of protectionism in part because few countries make up one morning and say i would love to start a trade war. so what i worry about is we don't have enough leaders telling americans that a lot of that will hopefully get out of the economic trouble we're in right now is by building more jobs in america are connected to the world. part of it is imports, exports, firms growing and responding to demand and the rest of the world, assuming that demand. if you flip over your iphone, nearly everyone in the room has an iphone.
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there's a great symbol of globalization going on around the world because this was designed by apple in california, assembled in china. it's a lot of industries that supports the dynamism that we talked about could be realized moving in the other direction. we talk to the clean tech earlier. by my eyes, the united states and china and other countries all over each other to do more to protect their tariff barriers and subsidies clean tech innovation. i am not smart enough to figure out what is clean technologies. i let the force of international trade and investment help our country's figure that out. but we're moving in precisely the opposite direction. >> anything on the wellness? >> i can't do the wellness because i'm not familiar, but i do have thoughts about people taking responsibility. my experience of our children's generation is that's what they're doing.
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they want to have a political system and they go down a mark for teach for america or teach for india or teach for china. it's an incredible generation. are they all doing a? of course not. a huge percentage of kids going over the world. one of my students they teach at yale, pardon the expression here, one of my students from duke started a company based on solar solar chargers for cell phones for companies with no electricity and the next is they'll sell chargers so they can charge away so the kids can read. it's unbelievable. a 22-year-old woman coming-out woman. she graduates from the university of vermont, mr. romagna ancestor project which is much better than the united states because she asked that the villagers while before she sends the $3000 and they get
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the plane in take responsibility. the skits are unbelievable. aggregate these are not ever single tape, but it's not just people from gale and dartmouth. it's people from all over the place. it's an extraordinary thing. they're determined to remake the world of matter what politicians do. >> one additional thought on bad is it does make sense to have people pay a fraction, a co-pay that supports a little bit of the guardian. it's good to have a health provider decided holistically. but if we have undifferentiated premiums that don't reflect whether you're engaged in risky behavior in terms of eating, drinking, smoking, you name it, we are not doing enough to prevent the oscars.
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so they have learned that when they put incentives with large or positive health behavior, better behavior happens in total costs are down. so is the set up these exchanges, we need to differentiate premium based on personal behaviors. >> i was once told a good moderator never offers an opinion, but i will break that rule and offer an opinion. i think we've had an extraordinary panel and i would think if you would please join me in thanking. [applause] and we have a small gift for each of you. douglas irwin, power dean, roger brinner, slaughter, thank
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good morning. thank you all for coming. i am doug elmendorf the director of the office. this morning cbo released its update to the economic outlook. i would like to briefly summarize the report and then my colleagues and i will be happy to answer your questions. we estimate that the federal government budget deficit this year will be $1.1 trillion which equals 7.3% of the country's economic output or gdp. down from about 10% in 2009. this is the fourth year in a row in which the deficit exceeded a trillion dollars.
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federal debt held by the public will reach 73% of gdp by the end of this fiscal year. the highest level since 1950, and about twice that a measure that the end of 2007 before the financial crisis and recession. as always, we have prepared baseline projections to reflect the assumptions the current law generally remains unchanged. they distributed benchmark for lawmakers to use and consider changes in the law. however, substantial changes to tax and spending policies are scheduled to take effect at the end of this year under the current law and whether the lawmakers allow the changes to unfold or alter them to play a crucial role in determining that half of the federal budget and the economy. therefore we have also prepared projections under an alternative fiscal scenario which embodies the assumption that many policies have recently been in
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effect will be continued. i will talk about the baseline first and then turn to the alternative scenario. along the policy change is due to occur in january under the current law, the ones with the largest impact on the budget our first the reductions in tax rates and other forms of tax relief originally enacted since 2001 are set to expire. provisions that limit the reach of the alternative minimum tax or amt expired at the end of last year. second come sharp reductions in medicare payment rates for physician services are scheduled to take effect. third, automatic enforcement procedures specified by the budget control act of last year to restrain spending are set to go into effect. for come extensions of emergency unemployment benefits and the reduction in the payroll tax social security are scheduled to expire. if allowed to occur the sharp
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reductions in taxes and federal spending, i'm sorry, increase in taxes lead to a dramatic reduction in the federal deficit trimming it by almost $500 billion next year. that would be a significant tightening at school policy and would probably lead to a recession early next year. specifically the baseline economic forecast shows continued modest growth in economy during the rest of 2012 but a drop in output during the first half of next year on the annual rate of nearly 3%. calling the drop we anticipate a output will expand again in the second half of next year and beyond. however the unemployment rate will rise to about 9% in the second half of next year and remain above 8% for 2014 and the forecast under the current law. those tax increases and spending reductions will also lead to a relatively small deficits throughout the coming decade and
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the declining path of debt relative to gdp. our baseline budget projections which assume as i said the current law regarding taxes and spending generally remain unchanged show the deficits close to 1% of gdp in 2015 and later. the small deficit in the the growing economy, debt held by the public falls from 73% of gdp in 2012 to 58% of gdp in 2020 to. that is what we think will happen under the baseline. to bolster the consequences of the possible changes to the current law, co produced projections under an altar of the fiscal scenario that incorporates the following assumptions. first, all expiring tax provisions accept the current payroll tax production or extended indefinitely. a second, the amt is indexed for inflation after 2011.
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further, medicare payment rates for the physician services are held constant at the current level and for if the automatic spending reductions required by the budget control act richer set to take effect in january do not occur although the original tax on the discretionary appropriations are assumed to remain in place. that's been an alternative policy which are similar to those that have been in effect in the recent years would lead to a budgetary and economic outcomes of would differ significantly both in the near term and in later years from those in the baseline. for 2013 the deficit would again exceed a trillion dollars. the deficits would remain very large throughout the coming decade averaging about a trillion dollars a year or 5% of gdp. revenue would be about 18% of gdp, quite close to the average in the past 40 years. federal spending would be much higher about 23% of gdp above
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the four year average of 21%. the increase in outlays compared with the historical experience reflects hi irshad shlaes relative to gdp for social security and the major health care programs. it's partly offset by a much lower outlays relative to gdp for all other federal benefits and services taken together. with such large deficits, debt held by the public with clinton 90% of gdp by 2020 to higher than any time shortly after world war ii to read with that budget passed the economy would deep stronger in 2013 and 2014 economic growth would be modest and we wouldn't anticipate a recession. instead gdp would continue to expand and the unemployment rate would move slowly down rather than up to recover rapidly escalating battle that would increase the risk of a fiscal
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crisis during which investors would lose confidence in the ability to manage its budget and the government would thereby lose its ability to borrow at affordable rates. rising debt would hinder the savings and investments later in the decade reducing gdp and income relative to what would occur with smaller deficits. the policies assume the altar that fiscal scenario would put us on a path of debt that will ultimately be unsustainable. therefore as we've noted many times before, the key issue facing policy makers is not whether to reduce budget deficits relative to those that would occur under the current policies. the question is when and how to read if lawmakers do not reduce the deficit sharply in 2013 perhaps because of the near-term economic consequences, they will need to reduce it later. at some point we need to adopt
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policies the require people to pay significantly more in taxes, accept substantially lessen the government from services or both in closing, i want to acknowledge the more than 120 people that are directly involved in the production of the report and the other is the offer critical support in addition to the staff of the joint committee on taxation providing a valuable assistance want to express my appreciation to all the people for their talent and dedication. thank you. my colleagues and i are happy to answer your questions. >> if it is avoided the 1.7% growth next year why is that? >> the evidence suggests that falling financial crises, the economy's tend to have more
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severe slumps and more gradual recovery is than is the case following recessions, the case for recessions that don't follow the financial crisis. in the united states today, we think the demand for the goods and services being held back by a number of factors. one is the overbuilding of the housing stock leading up to the financial crisis. there are a large number of an occupied houses today. quite a bit fewer than there were years ago because housing construction has been weak, but many more than would normally be the case, and households with good credit or able to borrow for the mortgages at low rates and have trouble getting mortgage money. so there is a weak demand for housing construction then there is normally coming out of the recession of the united states.
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another factor holding down economic growth has been restraint in spending and hiring by state and local governments. normally hiring perceived by the government and is a factor boosting economy back to recession that has not been the case of this time. there's been a tremendous loss of household wealth in the stock market's and in the homes people alone. despite the various factors of course, we and others have not been able to perfectly predict the nature of this recovery. there's been a number of developments that i think outside this country that have mattered as well the situation in europe is a great deal of concern. it's one of the risks to the economic forecast we highlight, and their problems have been a
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drag on this economy and have the potential to be much larger drag. so we don't entirely understand what is going on in the economy. i wouldn't claim otherwise. we are in the process of producing a report on the slow recovery work that has come out of the forecasting which we are trying to assess and explain to people what we do see going on, and we hope to have the report out shortly. estimate your projections for the consequences going over the fiscal cliff are a little worse than earlier this year. why is that? >> relative to the report that we've released in may about the effect of the fiscal restraint on the economy, we have lowered our projection of economic growth for next year. also the underlying strength of
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the economy the economy has been growing at a modest pace for the past three years we expect that to continue, but we have pushed down a little bit how strong we think growth would be in the absence of the fiscal tightening in the economy that is growing at a modest pace, fairly small shocks can matter and large can matter a tremendous amount. what we see coming for next year under the current law is a very large amount of fiscal tightening and the deficit relative to gdp than any year since 1969 and that is sufficiently large shock to the demand for goods and services next year to push the economy into recession. >> yes?
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>> you mentioned the threat of sort of say we lost our ability to buy cheaply. pretty deep in debt. rates are lower than ever. why is this magic tipping point coming we're all of a sudden they are going despite? we have been warned about them for a long time and passed the point people say this should happen. >> interest rates on treasury security depend on a number of factors. one is certainly the amount of treasury debt in the financial system and other factors are important knows well and we think the treasury securities are especially low right now despite the high level of treasury debt for a few reasons. one is the weakness of the u.s. economy and the preference by many investors to hold excess of the reason the treasury securities are especially low because they are geared the receiver than any other
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alternatives in the financial system. .. welcome to nasa's jet propulsion laboratory. the mars curiosity rover is settling well into its new home on mars and i guess we could say it's really on a roll right now. we're going to hear from a panel of scientists and engineers to hear what's going on. but i want to mention today has been declared space day by california governor jerry brown who will be visiting jpl and meeting with the rover team later on. in the meantime, we'll start with our panel. and we're going to introduce them first of all we have michael mief
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michael meyer, the lead scientist for the mars program in washington. pete tisinger, the msl project manager for jpl and we have roger weans, los alamos national laboratory in new mexico. matt heverly is next, here at jpl and roger weans then is the principle investigator at cem in los alamos in new mexico, last but not least, joy crisp, the deputy project scientist at jpl. we'll start off with a special announcement this morning from michael meyer. >> well, thank you. actually, before i make the announcement, which i think all of you will enjoy, i would like to show you a short video. this video was made on the eve of the arrival at mars of mariner 9. this was in november of 1971,
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and in the video you'll see a couple of people you might recognize like bruce murray and carl seguin and ray bradbury. so if we could look at that video. >> i was hoping that during the last few days, as we got closer to mars and the dust cleared, that we'd see a lot of martians standing there with huge signs saying "bradbury was right." or even clark. so i'm going to keep this short because i'd much rather listen to our scientific friends here today tell us about what's coming up this week. but every time i get a group of people together and have them trapped in a hall like this, bring a poem, see? and you can't escape me. luckily it's a short poem but it sums up some of my feelings on
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why i love space travel, why i write science fiction, why i'm intrigued with what's going on this weekend in mars. part of this has my philosophy about space travel in it, and if you'll permit i'll read it to you. it's very, very short. since we walked between the years to bounce us serene, there's a place half in the sky where the greenl in leaf and promising of peach we reach our hand to touch and almost touch the sky. if we could reach and touch, we said, it would teach us not to, never to be dead. we ached and almost touched that stuff, our reach was never quite enough. if only we had touched god's cuff, his hem, we would not have to go with them who have gone before, who short as us stood tall as they could stand and hoped by stretching tall that they might keep their land, their home, their heart, their flesh and soul. but they, like us, were standing
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in a hole. oh, thomas will a race stand one day really tall across the void, across the universe and all and measure that with rocket fire at last put adam's finger forth as on the sistine ceiling and god's hand come down the other way to measure man and find him good and gift him with forever's day? i work for that. short man, large dream. i send my rockets forth between my ears hoping an inch of good is worth a pound of years. aching to hear a voice cry back along the universal mall, we've reached -- we're tall! oh, god, we're tall! [ applause ] >> and today saul 16 we have the
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first roving astro biology rover on mars and we have truly extended our reach and touched another planet. today would have been ray bradbury's 92nd birthday, but he's already reached immortality with the hundreds of short stories he's written and nearly 50 books. his books have truly inspired us. the martian chronicles have inspired our curiosity and opened our minds to the possibility of life on mars. in his honor, we declared the place that curiosity touched down to be forever known as bradbury landing. i kind of like of name. for one, it was the majority vote of the science team, having been inspired by rad bradbury. landing is actually an event,
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it's not an object. also, it hearkens back to the time when ships landed on the shores of other new worlds to explore. and this place might, in fact, with its water reference be even more a aprapo. i want to relay to you one of my favorite scenes from the martian chronicles when the humans peer over the rim of one of the martians' canals. there they see reflected in the water martians and themselves. so, as we look forward to one of those days, i would like to now turn it over to pete tisinger who will tell us about our intrepid martian, the rover curiosity. >> thank you, mike. i would like, before i start, to give a small hand of applause to ray bradbury. [ applause ]
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he was a friend of jpl as well as will of the total space program and several people, including myself, had the honor of meeting him. you are looking here today at a very smiley, ecstatic project manager. we have completed 16 sols on the surface and everything has been going extremely well. i mean, really extremely well. we have no anomalies or other issues we're working, with the exception of the rem's wind sensor anomaly which is still in work. if i could have the first slide, please. i kind of would like to take you back to the day before landing. i think richard cook sat on the stage and talked about what the near-term plans were going to be after 10:31 on that sunday evening. i kind of want to let you know what's happening. in the early first week of planned activities we were going to do the ms deploy, instrumental liveness checks,
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require panorama. we had a quiet day planned and then a few days later finish the surface load and note the check marks because we successfully completed those basically on plan. next slide, please. this is kind of the longer view going forward. in early august we were going to get the first images and finish the engineering checkout. we completed that activity. in mid to late august we were to complete the payload checkouts. tweef do we've done that. and we were going to check out the sample system. we haven't quite completed that work. we have done a short drive today that matt will talk about in a second and with that activity we have completed the characterization phase one, both a and b. if you recall in that plan, there was going to be an intermission between cap one and cap two and that is going to take place. and that intermission is likely to be a little bit more extended and so, rather than do the
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surface ample checkouts and the first drive, i think the scientists have decided we're going to take an extensive drive, since we now know the system works well, and then we will complete the sample system checkouts later in august. we still ought to be able to complete a scoop sample in mid to late september on plan and the first drill symbol in october and november. right now a little bit more intermission, little more science from that, but we're basically on plan with what i'd like to repeat is an extremely well-behaved flight system on mars. and matt will tell us about today's drive. >> thanks, pete. to get to the good stuff and put up the image from today, the very beautiful image. so i am pleased to report that curiosity today had her first successful drive on mars. so this -- [ applause ] this drive checkout coupled w da
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fully functioning system. you can see our touchdown point, you can see the tracks driving away from that location as well as the scour marks to the right and the left of the rover's initial position. we drove forward did the turn in place and abacked up and you can see that the soil underneath the rover kind of confirms our expectations, that the soil is firm. great for mobility. we're not seeing too much sinkage and we should have smooth sailing ahead of us. i've also got another graphic showing the animation of the drive today, if we can move to that. so this is our simulation and visualization tool which shows our first drive. so we initially bumped forward 90 centimeters to image the wheels and then drove an additional distance to a total of 4 1/2 meters where we did our first turn in place. you can see we're imaging every once in a while to look at the wheels while we drive, inspect
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them, turning half of our 120-degree turn, turning the remaining distance and then backing up 2 1/2 meters. so this final location places us in a good spot to do some good science here. we have the goldburn scour where we can view it with the instruments. the key thing about the drive today is we were able to do one full revolution of the drive actuators in the forward direction, we were able to turn and see that the inertial movement is working property and back up another full revolution of the drive actuators. so we were able to see motor occurrence, get the data and everything looks perfectly nominal. we're very excited to have this kind of milestone behind us. we see that the system is performing very well, and we're in a great place to do some science. with that, i'll pass it over to roger. >> thanks, matt. exciting. so i'm going to talk about the checkout of the kem kem
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instrument and some of the first science with it. the kem kem is the laser instrument which fires high-energy pulses at targets up to almost 25 feet away. so that produces plasmas that provide chemical composition of the samples for us to understand. so we're going to cut to a video here, which will show a demonstration before we integrated this instrument on to the rover. so here is the mast part of the kem kem instrument. you see a 4 1/2-inch telescope there, the laser is right behind. and we're going to show a little demonstration where this instrument is going to be used to fire at an iron pie ryke target about eight feet away. we're setting it up here. the lazar beam is invisible but you see the plasmas here at 3 hurts and 10 hurts. you can see how it shoots and we show a still image of the plasma so you can see what it really looks like.
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this test was done at terrestrial pressure, it 'twas done in los alamos national lab, and the plasmas are more confined in a terrestrial atmosphere than they are on mars. so if we show the next image, you'll see the difference. on the left, you'll see what a plasma looks like in a terrestrial environment, but this was in a chamber so then we evacuated it down to mars pressure, which is about 1% of earth's pressure, and on the right you can see the size and brilliance of the plasma at mars pressure. so open the right is what's actually now happening on mars. the short of this is that we're getting great signals so far. so basically kem kem also includes a remote microimageer so this imager is designed to take close-up high resolution images to provide the context
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with the spots we hit with the l laser. until we pull out the mass kem 100, and start using this, this is the highest image resolution on the rover right now. basically, in the next image we'll show the rock that we first analyzed on the surface of mars. this was a rock called correspond coronation. the rock itself is only about 3 inches across and it's about 8 feet from the instrument. and so we sent up the commands on saturday night, and the spectra came back sunday morning and we had a very excited team to look at this. actually, the way we did this, we actually took an image the day before and then repointed just slightly so the image you see on this picture is just a little bit off, but the next day
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we got it right in the middle and we show a little inset of where it hit on the rock. and i'll show another like that a little bit later. but the next slide we'll show is actually the spectrum from this rock. in short, we got silent signal. we actually saturated one emotion line slightly so that just shows what good signal we're getting from mars. so the spectrum consists of 6,144 channels that span wave length -- so that covers the ultraviolet with one spectrometer, a violet and blue range with another spectrometer and the visible and near-infrared ranging that our eyes see with a third spectrometer. it covers all the rainbow colors plus a bunch on both sides. so you can see labeled on there
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a number of emission lines. we can see the major elements, oxygen, silicone, magnesium, sodium, potassium, calcium. but there's also minor and trace elements we can pick up with this instrument so the inset on the upper left actually shows titanium and manganese, quite lower in composition. also, if you'll look, you'll see lithium pointed out as well, that's probably less than 50 parts per million. so there's a lot of detail we can get from this instrument so we're really excited about that. just one more thing about that, the inset near the center shows the peaks of hydrogen and carbon. the carbon peak on the right of this inset is from the atmosphere so there's nothing real big there. in terms of findings, the peak on the left showing hydrogen, this is actually a sequence plot
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which shows every single laser shot as a separate spectrum. and we did 30 shots here and so the first shot is shown in the white and that curve shows that we actually had hydrogen on the first shot but then it went down, we could barely see it on the second shot and then it went away. it shows us on the very surface of this rock we had hydrogen. another thing we saw on the surface was an enhancement of magnesium. so we saw this on coronation also on the examples we looked at so far including the calibration on the rover. this could be indicative of something on the dust. we need to look into this a little bit more. so after this rock, we kind of told the science team that they were free to start choosing some targets, and they went and selected the goldburn scour, this is the area where the rover -- the sky crane's thrusters actually sort of dug in a little bit with the blast and they uncovered a small rock
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outcrop, which is of interest because of the way it looks. it looks as if it may have some little layers in it. it's bed rock. if we can go to the next image, this image shows a mass cam 34 image in the center, and it is labeled with the locations of the remote microimageer, kem kem's imager, pictures 1 through 6, the high resolution pictures. we targeted this for imaging and goldburn locations 2, 3 and 4 for the laser as well. so we shot the laser at the center of these images. and so the results we got there are pretty consistent with what we saw on coronation. the results looked like a basalt ick composition so that's not too surprising for mars.
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we know basalt is the major igneous rock on mars. the fact that goldburn that looks a little bit sedimentary shows a basalt ick composition is not too surprising because when we look at this close up with the remote microimager, we see clasps or rock fragments that look probably basaltic as well. if this was a sendmentry rock, it loose lie cemented some of the rock fragments. some are angler so they don't look much altered and some are a little bit more rounded. so that's kind of the story. we've also shot a couple of other rocks. one of them did give a different composition but is still consistent with an igneous rock. it looks like we hit more of a mineral grain, potentially plaid u clais. because of the small spots the kem kem can shoot, we can get single mineral grain if it's a
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larger grained rock. what we'll need to do is move toward doing rafters and line scans so we get more analysis spots on single rocks so we can really tell. we're still working on checking some of those things out. i'm just going to show a final image, which is actually the goldburn number three, and this is an animation that cuts between a before and an after image that we took with the microimager, showing what the rock looks like just before and just after shooting it with the laser. you can see how we can see where the laser shot so there you have it. and we're going to be looking forward to doing lots more science with the kem kem instrument, but we're excited it's looking great so far. so i'll turn it over to joy crisp who's going to talk more about the overall science status of the mission. >> thank you. i'm going to go over some more specifics about what we've done for science and what's coming in our science plans. the engineering cameras are now fully checked out and being used
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to measure atmospheric dust, winds and clouds. we've taken color images from molly amass cam. we've performed thorough checkouts on eight of our ten scientific instruments. as we've described in previous press briefings, the rad radiation monitor, the rem's weather station, the subsurface sournd and kex kem laser spectrometer and imageer are already taking scientific measurements. the dan team are inspecting their first reported measurement they reported in the conference. kem kem team is poring over their data as you heard from roger. and we've got several days of all-day/all-night weather will readings we're studying and we've partially checked out the remaining two instruments, our analytic laboratory sam and kemin. so we're about to go into this intermission period, which we have three major activities
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going on in this period. so we'll have two separate days where we do some sam atmospheric checkouts and first time we do that, that will be the first turn-on of sam's pumps spectrometer and tuneable laser spectrometer. that will be very exciting. we will have a campaign to do some of the advanced capabilities of mass cam, like the precise focusing over the range that it can focus on, taking long-range 3d images by positioning the rover at different parking spots and using those spots like different eye positions to get the 3d range information and check that out. and then also, thirdly, the kem kem laser spectrometer we're going to do some more characterization of that to understand how well the optics are aligned and how sensitive the spectrometer is.
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so, after the intermission, then we're currently planning to drive towards glen elk, which is 400 meters to the east. that's the triple junction we've shown pictures of before, and we're thinking of spending a few more it days before we start driving towards that, examining the scours, these scours from the sky crane thrusters. using mass cam, cam cam and dan. now, on the way to glen elg, we'd like to stop as soon as we encounter scoopable fine material to get going, checking out the sample handling system and getting sample into sam and kem in. the first would be scoopable fines and we would be trying to clean out that sample will acquisition, the scoop and sample handling system, by doing that several times, just tossing it out on the ground and then
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taking a sample to put into sam and condekemin. we might likely hold off doing our first science with apsx and molly until we get to that area, but that is to be determined. we may encounter something that we want to do that on before we get there. the stop at the scoopable finds is likely to take a few weeks, so all of this is still fairly uncertain in terms of the timing. when we finally get to glen elg after doing that, we want to study the outcrop there and take a look at the contacts between the three different terrain types. and maybe there is where we would decide to do our first drilling into rock. and after glen elg, we head for mount sharp, and that will be a much longer drive with probably some few brief stops along the
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way, and that's going to take several months before we get to that point. that's pretty much sums up what we've done, what we're doing. we really are ramping up from having the initial checkouts under our belt and now we're doing very complicated activity plans each day and working hard on these strategic plans, what the order of activity should be and how long everything is going to take. so i'll hand it back to rosemary for q&a. >> thank you, joy. i'd like to start with a couple of questions here in the auditorium at jpl. we do have some reporters on the line so we'll get to those as well. if yohave a question, please raise your hand high and wait for the mike to get to you. then identify yourself, your name and your affiliation. do we have a question? let's go in the third row right here. >> steve fuderman from cbs. pete and matt, i guess, or anyone who wants to comment, how
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significant is this landmark moment, the first drive, as short as it might have been? >> it couldn't be more important. i mean, we built a rover. so unless the rover roves, we really haven't accomplished anything. so, yes, tremendous, and the fact that we complete exercised it and everything was on track is a big moment. very big moment. >> we've got an amazing team that built this very capable rover. we had a lot of confidence it would work, but you're always a little nervous until you get the data. seeing everything was nominal, as pete said, all the steer actuators, drive actuators, work, all the instruments, the inertial instrument works. now we can move to checking out higher level behaviors with the rover, allowing us to drive further every day, do aton muster rain assessment, more accurately track where the rover goes. so we're on pace to having this amazingly capable rover that can
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can traverse over to the base of mt. sharp. >> i'd like to ask one other thing. as you know, in the past when the project got into difficulty one of the principle developmental issues we were working with was with the actuators. i think we need to recognize the actuator supplier and team here at jpl for what has been perfect performance so far on mars. it's not just the drive. it's also the arm and the mast and the antenna. so far they've been just perfect over what is a very demanding environment. those people need to be congratulated for that. >> do we have another question here at jpl? if so, raise your hand. let's go to the phones, then. we can always jump back here. the first question on the phone will come from eric hand at nature. go ahead, eric. >> hi, thanks. my question is for joy crisp. hi, joy. if you could give me a more specific time line for the
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intermission, when i guess in terms of the specific sol in which the activity would happen. can you say when intermission would begin, when the first sam atmospheric study would happen, and then when you might begin the drive to glen elg? >> well, all i can say is we're beginning it tomorrow, and it will span several days. we can't know exactly which days we're going to do each thing. i believe that we're going to be trying to do the first sam atmospheric test on sol 18, but these things are subject to change as we do the planning, things can change the order in which we do things. so the best answer i can give you is, in a period of a few days and, like, on the order of a week is what that intermission
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will last, and that's the best i can do. >> so on the order of a week later you might begin the drive to glen elg. >> on that order. >> as a quick follow-up, how quickly do you think you might be able to have a trace gas result from sam? is that something you'll be able to know in a day or two? >> the first atmospheric measurements done by sam are really checkouts, not so much meant to be definitive measurements, so they really need to -- they're not optimized yet for making good measurements and so you'll just have to stay tuned for what they can say about those measurements. but really they're meant for just the first checkouts, first one very short integration time. they will learn from those how to set up the measurements for very good, careful analysis. >> so it's not possible that you
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could maybe see signs of methane in this first checkout? >> i will leave that to the sam pi to report after he sees his measurements. but for now it's being -- it's really meant to be a checkout. >> okay. thanks, joy. >> we're going to take another question by phone from "the l.a. times," amina kahn. >> hi. thanks for taking my question. i was wondering if you could talk more about glen elg and the three types of terrain there. what does it look like? just that layered bedrock you guys are looking to drill? before you get there, is there any sort of sense of what the story is gee logically there? >> we have seen very many interesting cartoons by the science team trying to look at different possibilities for what the geologic situation is there. they're really in the hypothesis stage, and it's too early to
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say. what we can see is different textures to these terrains in terms of cratering and the looks to them. they're albedos. it's nearby and it looks like we should be able to encounter bedrock there so that's a really good reason for going there, is to be able to examine three different materials that are in place that look like we could sample rock. not much more i can say about it at this point but that it does look intriguing. i don't know if anybody else on the panel wants to add to that. >> let's take our next question we phone, irene clots from reuters. >> hi. thanks very much. i have just one quick follow-up about the drive, just wanted to know if indeed it took 30 minutes, as we were told
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yesterday, that that would be the likely duration of it. and then i have a couple of question wi questions about cam cam. thanks. >> so the drive started local solar time at 13:32, which was 7:17 here pacific time. with all the images it took roughly 16 minutes and the majority of that time is spent taking the images. the rover actually probably only drove for 4 or 5 minutes of that motion. >> thanks very much. and for roger, one of the things i think you all had talked about earlier with kem kem is you were curious if you were going to see different spectra as you pulse deeper into the rock. i was wondering if you did see any composition changes. and then i think i might have -- i wasn't sure about this, but is c coronation actually at the goldburn scour or was that in a different location?
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>> i'll answer your last question first. coronattion was not part of the goldburn scour. it was ahead and a little bit to the right of the rover, where it was sitting when it landed. ment goldburn scour was off to the left. so if you look back at the image of coronation, you'll actually see the rover's shadow in it, and that's sort of looking to the forward side of the rover. the other was about asking whether we were seeing differences in the spectra as we dug down into the rock. so the little inset of the spectrum did show the hydrogen at the very surface so, of course, the surface is one thing we were interested in and we'll be looking into that further. there was a hint of some other variation and one other measurement we made, but this can be, say, a transition between looking at one mineral grain to another. so we'd have to look at that a little bit more.
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>> okay. before we -- >> thank you. >> before we go back to another phone question, just want to make sure any reporters here at jpl with a question go ahead and raise your hand and we will get to you. in the meantime, let's take a phone question from leo enright at irish tv. >> thanks very much, jane. a quick question about coronation and the spectra. you said it was a basaltic composition. what are you saying, are you saying this is basalt gem but not as we know it, or is this standard basalt and can you make any comparison where on earth you could find similar basalts given you seem to know so much about this already, thanks to this instrument? >> yeah, thanks. we're still working on the calibrations in a big way yet on kem cam. we have a number of different calibrations we have to do, wave length calibration, this is much -- this spectrometer has
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much higher sensitivity to the wave length than anything that we've used in this spectra region before. we're looking to make sure that's characterized. the wave length shifts a bit when the rover changes temperature during the day. we're working on that, we also have a spectral library we built back here before we sent the instrument off so we have those to compare with. but right now we're just looking qualitatively at that spectrum and matching it up against a spectrum that we have from the laboratory and it just looks like some of the basalts we're going to get into the quantitative aspects in a little bit. but i also want to say that kem cam is a bit less quantitative, actually, than the apxs instrument on board for many elements, and so we're also looking forward to when apsx gets deployed on the arm and when we can make some
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cross-calibrations, which will make us more certain of our compositions as well will. these two instruments really complement each other very well. kem cam gets some elements very sensitively that apxs does not and apxs seems to have more ak arascy overall than kem kem. it's a great duo to have. >> our next question is going to come from ken cramer at space flight magazine. are you there, ken? hello, ken, are you still there? you can go ahead and ask your question. okay, i guess we'll come back to ken if he reappeareappears. the next question is from robert perlman at collect robert, are you there? >> i am. looking at the tracks, can you quantify how deep or how shallow the track marks are?
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for example, if a good wind storm came by, would they just be blown away? what does that tell you about the nature of the land that you landed on? and i have a follow-up. >> i can answer maybe just how deep we think. so we've got the cleats which are about a centimeter or so tall. what happens is we dig into the terrain with the cleats and then the ground pressure is absorbed by the rest of the wheel. we don't see much sinkage beyond that, where if you were driving on really soft sand you would see significantly more sinkage. we can tell just from the properties at looking at the tracks kind of how firm the soil is. i don't think i can necessarily answer the question about the dust and how they might get covered up. maybe joy? >> it would depend on what the winds do and whether there's fine material that will get deposited on these tracks or not. i think, if i'm not mistaken, the tracks should be somewhat similar in depth to mur tracks. there could still be a difference in the material properties here, but if you
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treat them as mur tracks, and there were times it took many sols when the tracks would get covered and start to disappear. so i don't expect that this would happen rapidly, but maybe after many months or years it would get harder and harder to see these tracks. >> thanks. and just a quick follow-up with regards to bradbury landing, is it defined by the borders of curiosity's wheels where it sat, where it landed, or does it encompass this whole area where you're sitting now? >> we're actually thinking of using the wheel marks as the corner posts for bradbury landing. >> great. thanks. >> i'm told that ken cramer of space flight magazine has reappeared. go ahead, ken. >> i'm here. can you hear me? i hope we didn't get disconnected again. my question is for roger weans. i wonder if you could talk about
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how many targets in a day can you analyze with kem cam? i understand it's 14,000 overall a, but i was wondering, in a day, how many can you analyze? >> yes, that 14,000 number, ken, came from looking at the number of days or sols that we're going to be on mars in a nominal mission, which is 700-some. and assuming that a maximum that we would possibly do would be 20 analyses per day. that's how we came up with that. now, it's going to be a long time -- or it could be a while anyway before we get to do 20 analyses in one day, but if we arrive at a new site after driving some distance and you can imagine an outcrop in front of us, we could perhaps target something close to that. it really depends how crafty and how skillful some of our uplink people get at devising these sequences. and they're coming up to speed very nicely. >> okay. i was wondering, too, after you
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get the data, how quickly are you able to analyze it and decide, you know, what you're seeing? >> yeah. so the process, once the information comes down, we have a roll called a pail low downlink lead. so that person is responsible on our kem cam team for pulling the data over on to a computer and starting to first of all check out what files did we receive and then, secondly, are they looking okay? so we look at the images we received and we look at the spectra we received and we look at other things such as we usually take a non-laser dark spectrum as well to subtract the background. all of those things get pulled together and then within about a couple of hours they've usually gone through and cataloged what we've seen, and we get ready to
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present that at a science kickoff meeting within about two hours of the downlink. and we usually do more analysis after that, but that's the initial. >> thank you. >> we're going to take a question now from and mike wall. and i see we have a question after that from jpl. go ahead, mike. >> hi. this one is probably for matt. do you guys have any idea -- i mean, once you guys start to actually drive, make your first big drive, how long are those first drives going to be when you finally head out from the sort of landing site where you are now and head toward your first big science target? are those going to be 10 to 20 meters like i've heard before? do you have a little more confidence that maybe it can make some longer drives? >> that's a good question, mike. we'll start out with fairly modest drive, in the 10-meter range. then as i mentioned before we're going to do a couple of
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checkouts. we'll check out the aton muss ability of the rover to identify hazards and avoid obstacles so it stays safe. we'll calculate how far the rover moves so we can see if we're slipping and embedding in the terrain. we've never done that image processing aaboard the rover. it's different lighting, terrain. we want to know it's working as we expect. once the functionality is checked out and we have confidence in it, we'll expand the drive distances, 20 meters, 30 meters, 40 meters. 40 meters is kind of the edge of our cam horizon, where we get good stereo data with the nav cams we're taking. as we continue to have more and more confidence in the system, we'll extend the drives and drive past the nav cam horizon, 50 potentially out to 100 meters or so per sol. >> we're going to jump back to jpl. we have a question here. please state your name.
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>> amy johnson kcbs-tv. in looking at the screen here, i can clearly make out the track, but can you explain a little bit more about what we're actually eeing in this photo? >> yes. this is a very historic photo. there's only one place on mars where you start your tracks, and you can see exactly where we landed because you can see the tracks where we're starting. then to the right of the tracks you can see kind of two dark spots. those are the scour marks from the landing engines, and then similarly you see them symmetrically on the other side, the two left marks. you can see in the tracks how we drive forward, then you can see roughly a circle which is where the rover did what we call the turn and place maneuver. it steered all of its wheels and performed a turn of 120 degrees, pivoting about that point in the middle of that circle, and then it backed up. one of the other things we can point out in here is we see different patterns in the wheels. we have intentionally put holes in the wheels to leave a unique track on mars that we can use
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for the visual tr domet. we can use the patterns to do that. the other thing to note in here is there's a small rock under where we landed on the right rear wheel. when we did our steer actuator checkout, we saw somewhat high occurrence -- the bogey, the suspension of the system on the back of the rover tweaks out to the right a little bit. we were able to confirm that we were kind of on that 9-center meter-tall rock when we landed down. this is great. we're able to see under the rover, see exactly what we landed on and correlate that to the engineering data we got from the sol 15 actuary checkout. did that answer your question? >> it did. thank you. >> looks like we have time for one more question. go ahead. >> nice ending question. the president of the united states lauded jpl and dr. alatchy, the governor of california is going to be here today. michael, if you wouldn't mind,
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everything seems to be working perfectly up to now. it seems to be textbook. give us an assessment, several weeks into this now, as to how your team is working. sol is a different day than the one we're used to. and what the attitude is like now that you've captured the nation's attention and the imagination of so many with this rover. >> the team is tremendously excited. everything is working. we've kind of gone through starting in the middle of the night going through daylight and actually over the next couple of weeks we're going to move back to being on the night shift as the difference between earth day and mars sol shifts out from day day to day night. but everything is working. the hard part is kind of dampering the excitement a little bit so people get enough rest so they are in it for the long haul instead of just
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waiting anxiously for each image to come down. but it is fantastic how well everything is working and so everything that we've promised with this rover going to mars and going to a place where we think is interactive with water. we have high hopes this will really prove out this region and tell us whether or not it was ever potentially habitable. >> and i wouldn't be doing my job if i didn't exercise a little bit of caution here. okay? we are 16 days into a two-year mission. we haven't put the arm on the ground yet. there's -- we haven't exercised a sample gathering capability, which is a key, key, key element of this rover science mission. so, as good as it's gone and as wonderful as it is, we still only checked off about two of the level one requirement boxes. we launched on time, landed on mars. and we've got a long way to go before this mission reaches its
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full potential. but the fact we haven't had any early problem is, in fact, fantastic. but i just -- you know, managing expectations, right? we've got to keep doing this as the team has been doing, methodically, properly, prudently so as not to get out of ourselves and cause ourselves our own headache. but, as michael said, so far it's been wonderful. >> science, engineering, enthusiasm, caution. >> what more can we expect? >> well, that wraps up the q&a portion. thank you to our panelists. immediately after this, we will replay the visuals from the news conference and remember a lot of information is online and images 24/7 at however, in closing we do have a short video clip from 2009 when ray bradbury visited jpl and he
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was right here in this von carmen auditorium. he was here to congratulate the team on the fifth anniversary of the twin mars rovers spirit and opportunity. and some of the rover drivers, they were very excited to meet him and wanted to express their gratitude to him for inspiring them. so we have a very short video remembrance of that day to share with you. >> having ray bradbury here was incredible because in particular for mars he really has been one of the voices from very, very
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early on for going to mars and exploring mars, long before we knew how to do it. he was taking us there in our minds. >> let me introduce you to some of the other people who drive the rover with me. >> so our rovers look just like this. >> when he came to the operations room and we showed him the model of the rover and the large-scale panoramic pictures that we've taken, the actual photographs of the surface of the planet, it was like watching him experience it as a child almost would experience, just the wonderment. he had never lost that wonder for mars that he's always conveyed in his books. >> there you go. you're getting the hang of it already. we're going to have to hire you. >> showing him how we control the rover and using the simulator and letting him basically you drive the simulator over across the surface of the planet and letting him see the reality of that was very rewarding for us because we could tell how much it meant to him to see this,
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that once what was only fiction that, partly because of his vision and his sharing that vision with us, it's now become a reality and that we're >> you're watching c-span2. we decision live coverage of the u.s. senate. on weeknights watch key public policy events. every week in the latest nonfiction authors and books on booktv. you can see past programs and get our schedules at our website and you can join in the conversation on social media sites. >> tonight here on c-span2, a discussion on how new technologies are impacting art, journalism and race relations in
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this country. speakers include, that is at 8 p.m. eastern. >> and tamara mitt romney campaigns in new mexico at a truck and supply company and will announce a new energy plan. c-span will have a live tomorrow at 12:55 p.m. eastern. >> looking at part of the two-and-a-half million dollars of state for the republican national convention. "the new york times" reports it was inspired by architect frank lloyd wright. it features 13 giant led screens. the biggest of which is 29 feet by 12 feet. you can see it here but republicans have installed a national debt clock also inside the tampa bay time for them.
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>> -- forum. and republican national convention begins monday. democratic convention the following week and you can see live coverage of both events from beginning to end each day on c-span. >> from time to time i will watch the proceedings of the house, the senate floor, interviews with people that are of interest. i have c-span app on my ipod so i can check your schedule and see when there's good stuff on. sometimes at the time which is right i could just get the live feed from the floor of the house and senate, and have them watch out for five or 10 minutes and then try to provoke some conversation. >> burnie davis watches c-span on comcast. c-span created by american cable company's in 1979 brought to you as a public service by your television provider.
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>> mayors from cities that housebuilder installations all over the country gathered to hear from defense industry executives and government officials to discuss the potential impacts of proposed defense policy changes that will cut the nation's military size. this event was part of the u.s. conference of mayors 80 the annual meeting in orlando in mid-june. >> [inaudible conversations] >> good morning, everyone, and we apologize for being a little behind. i think the one thing we know especially given the subject matter here this morning and with the anticipation of a special guest that everyone here
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is safe, secure, and nonviolent. in their behavior. we are here this morning to discuss, this is a forum on effective approaches to reducing violence in our cities all across america. we have a great, great panel, and we will be introducing the members very shortly. but this particular panel discussion is about discussing the unique and effective ways of addressing what i personally believe is one of the most serious problems facing cities all across the united states of america. and that, of course, is unfortunately the issue of violence. certainly many of you already know that reducing violence is a top priority for me personally. will be talking a bit more about that tomorrow, but as mayor of
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philadelphia and vice president of the u.s. conference of mayors, a particular focus on the issue of violence in my city and cities all across the united states. a little bit of a picture of the country. in 2010, there were nearly 13,000 murder victims across the united states of america. on average each day, 16 young people between the ages of 10 and 24 are murdered. 86% of them are males. african-americans account for 50%, total homicide victims and 85% of those victims are black men. of the offenders caught committing these murdered, 16% are black men under the age of 24. it is clear that unfortunately we are watching an entire
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generation of african-american men fall in behind. watching the next generation of our children go up without fathers, uncles and mail positive role models. our communities crumble under the weight of incarceration, drugs, illiteracy and most of all, violence. we are watching of course many are asking the question, what are we doing? at the national level in addition to my work of u.s. conference of mayors i've been working with mayor mitch landrieu and many, many others to establish entity and an organization called sees united. this is a diverse coalition of mayors, working in partnership with the right of stakeholder organizations to reduce violent deaths among black men and boys. i want to encourage all of our mayors across the u.s.
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conference of mayors, again, i will be talking about is tomorrow to some extent, join us in this effort. we will be speaking about what sees united is trying to do and what we expect to do. in and years to come. more of that tomorrow. several cities, officials are implementing what's often referred to as a cease-fire model. that's what we're going to discuss in this particular forum. cease-fire provides a unique interdisciplinary public health approach to preventing violence, began in chicago. it's being implement it in several other cities, including baltimore, new orleans and philadelphia. it's been a subject of rigorous evaluation, and it has been demonstrated to show that it is working. philadelphia's cease-fire is one of our tools in the overall strategy to reduce violence. working with local partners like temple university we've apply for federal grants to expand our mall to enhance our strategy. we are very grateful to the
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robert wood johnson foundation for sponsoring this for making it possible for mayors all across the country to learn about cease-fire and how it operates. we want all of you to be able to go home with this information, again, about cease-fire and how it works in cities across america. conference of mayors looks forward to continuing to work with the robert wood johnson foundation, provide information to mayors and others on this issue and other issues affecting our cities most vulnerable residents. so you talk a little bit about our panelists. please to have with us this cease-fires founder and executive director doctor gary slutkin. with gary's pioneering work in chicago which led to the application of public health principles treating violence as an infectious disease to reduce shootings and killings, physician and epidemiologist, kerry is a professor of
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epidemiology and international health at the university of illinois at chicago. he has been described as -- he will describe a cease-fire model for us in this form. will also hear from our good friend, baltimore's mayor, stephanie rawlings-blake. this is the longest-running application, replication of cease-fire model outside of illinois. among other things, mayor rawlings-blake serves as the vice chair for our games and youth development in our criminal and social justice committee. bob winger will be jennifer whitehill who is now at the university of washington, but has maintained an affiliation with the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health where she produced debated in the recent, recently completed evaluation of baltimore cease-fire replication. the results of that evaluation she will be discussing. then we'll hear from new orleans mayor, mayor mitch landrieu about his most recent efforts to implement the cease-fire model.
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fresno mayor, ashley swearengin, will provide the perspective of a man who said he has not yet implemented the cease-fire model. she will discuss cease-fires replicability. who wrote these remarks? [laughter] and how to relate to the efforts, it's not something i usually say in philadelphia. but how her efforts are already underway in her city to reduce violence. ..
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will >> can everybody hear me? good morning, everyone. how is everyone? thank you, mayor and everyone for coming. i'm going to talk today about the cease-fire public health model how it works, the results we have been getting and also kind of the way ahead. the way that i like to start is by thinking about this problem in the context of other problems in the history of man obstructed our progress, and this is a painting of the plague and a the reason that i bring that, which of course we now know is an infectious disease that centuries ago we were stuck with a situation where people were
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dying in neighborhoods, wanted to go into those neighborhoods but people themselves are blamed we have solutions such as this. the reason we went to solutions such as this is because we didn't know what was going on. the reason we didn't know what was going on as they were invisible process is going on with your scientifically not gotten there yet to figure out. it was a microorganism inside a flea inside a rat who knew. with respect to this problem of violence is we have not, or maybe we are now just beginning to understand the in visible brain process that is going on underneath us that allows us now to move on to our better scientific positioning to developing a more scientific approach to the possibility of putting this problem behind us. but in the absence of that, we
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are still working with the same type of solutions however, if we begin to look at this in a scientific way and in this particular city, we began to look at the maps and say we the second coming here we see geographic clustering in space. this is absolutely typical of academic process these. likewise, if we look at the graphs of violence or vicious killings over time, we see not linear waves but waves on top of waves. typical also of infectious or epidemic process these. one of the reasons why criminologists and economists and others have difficulty saying violence went up or down because of this or that because they are looking for linear responses when this is more transmissible type of process and then of course we all know that violence but what does that really mean? what it means is there is
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transmits devotee. they are being exposed to violence as a young person or even further on as a victim or even of serving it you are then more likely to do violence. not everything is transmissible. tv and leads to a tv. more violence. but it doesn't lead to more diabetes. expos two-stroke doesn't leave it to your more likely having a stroke. this is a transmissible infectious process. so if we proceed and think about this now about violence as a scientific issue to try to develop a scientific approach we would not only be looking now but also be a hero. what else can it do. we would be wondering where do the behavior's come from? does anybody want to know? it turns out a lot of teenagers are modeled. the majority of the behavior's are modeled or copied.
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this is called social learning. what is going on in the brain isn't actually thinking about it but unconscious bureau year on circuits that cause us to do what we observed to a certain extent. what keeps the eight years in place as it turns out is what other people think or what we think other people think what we call social expectations. these kids may not have thought about it, but they know what is expected of them to fight. just like it is expected for me to wear this or expected of you to not smoke today. these are social expectations of others and the our scientific pathways in the brain that allow us to have to deal with the need to get along. pathways that are as powerful as being used for food are also used for social belonging. social isolation shows that there is pain in the brain. it's important to be long. then we have this escalation capability of violence which has
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to do with this regulation of the emotion of the system and hyper vigilance and all this when you get is the new behavior following escalation epidemic process these. we know how to reverse epidemics and in fact there is only three things you need to do to reverse epidemics. one can interrupt transmission, second, find who is likely to transmit and then provide what is needed, in this case peter change and then shift the underlining norms. this is how world health reverses epidemics, especially contagious epidemics such as this. so to interrupt transmission, you need to find someone who can detect and intercept the process. we use enter raptors for this stage of the system. the second is you have to find who wells is a likely person to
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do violence which we can do in the neighborhood through certain epidemiological characteristics and then apply be to change to professional standards with them and cool them down so they are less likely to transmit. and then last, work on the underlying social norms that drive the whole thing so that it's very susceptible to violence and becomes less susceptible this is what it looks like on the street. the cease-fire medved interruption. the sources of information in the community, sources of information elsewhere and put it in a hospital. they are trained how to persuade and interrupt, changing the thinking, the jaw with ceasefire outreach workers and then changing the underlining norm there are a number of methods community managers put into
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place and putting responses to shootings, multiple messengers, the clergy has a role of public education campaign and so on. now if you put this into place there is a mis community shootings over time. you see a rapid reduction and then when the program is double even further jobs and then directors added and this is a community that went from over 40 shootings and killings to three. the communities have gone from 20 to zero, one from over 40 to six. these are the first six communities that use this average dropped. eight more communities in the three sets of controls, before and after hotspot mapping, shooting densities' before and after. these are the results of a steady set of four studies that the department of justice supported seven years of work, a tenure baseline.
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this is sent before and after. this isn't sold reported. this is independent evaluation independently funded department of justice studies, met for analysis, five neighborhoods having 100% reduction and retaliation. the bulk of the work would be described, but besides the significant results there was a behavioral change and the relationship between interruptions and homicide reductions. so this is the program was in the film the interrupters, for those that have seen at. this theory has been explored by "the new york times" magazine as a cover story and as the contagion and of the virus. the world's addition called this the approach that would come to prominence. and recently at the institute of medicine we review the basis of this work that it's contagious
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so we are working in 15 cities and the pentagon in particular in latin america and elsewhere. so there's a scientific approach that comes up from a different angle so it's synergistic and it's not only done by research studies but a detailed independent studies and allows us to begin to think that this problem differently than people and punishment. this is intentionally medieval script, so a new way of thinking about this behavior where we need to do a different set of actions. the effect of this is a safer neighborhood come a new ingalls using an effect of approach, adding to the law enforcement does, and i want to highlight
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changing the norm, which is the long term solution we want in our neighborhoods and these are our challenges. the biggest challenge is sticking with the model. if you deal with the model the way it is, it works. if you are doing something else were saying you are, a good lock. we can help in these ways. ausley and myself and josh can take your information and help on the identification of the model assessing whether your city is the right place and have the right hot spots, on the changing norms, the intervention i didn't have time to talk about and in educating our training on the approach. this is information you also have information at your seats. thank you very much. [applause] we are now going to hear from
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the mayor stephanie. >> good morning and thank you. i would like to think you've made your nutter for convening this on a critical topic. after hearing that i said what's going to question and answer, but i know that you have traveled a long way to do this. given the unique approach it's brought to more implemented cease-fire chicago model it's what we call them baltimore its overseeing as it should be based on the model by the city's health department and implemented by a community-based organization in a police post with a high level of violence. the role of the house department in combating any public health issues such as aids or heart disease or cancer is to identify to work with the community to implement and monitor the effectiveness.
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as such the health department adopted the same approach to combat violence by creating the office of youth violence prevention under the state street baltimore program. the health department is responsible for managing a vigorous vendor and site selection process as well as providing technical assistance and intense monitoring to ensure adherence to the cease-fire model. additionally the health department implements a citywide campaign and develops plans for expansion as allows sustainability. the program currently operates in two of the most violent neighborhoods with additional neighborhoods to be launched over the next year. eligible areas are predominantly in the top 25% of community's statistical areas with the highest rate of violence and implementing organizations have a history of proven success with the targeted areas. when founding becomes available, community-based organizations within the eligible areas are
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encouraged to apply through an rfp process. critical for the new site selection, excuse become criteria for the new site selection includes a demonstrated understanding of the cease-fire chicago model some of the organization's capacity to implement the program reputation and credibility within the target area, and experience providing services to the targeted population. since dr. white hill will provide on the findings of the independent evaluation however i would like to briefly discuss what we believe attributed to our successful results. as any evidence based program it's essential the program is implemented to the model. and i fell in your notes? [laughter] from the level individuals as we do at the health department to monitor model like gerrans and provide technical assistance has been critical to our success.
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we piloted an adaptation of the model with the modified stuffing plant to serve the adjacent. once we determined the model didn't quite have the same level of affect to the standard model the evaluation identified the mediation's were key to the reduction in violent incidents and significant reduction of homicide incidents have three times as many conflict mediation as less significant reduction. having the right outreach staff with the right skills is the most critical element to conducting high risk conflict mediations and it is essential to the initiative. finally, as i know this is a challenging time for the mayors all over the country when it comes to funding i will share some cost information related to the program. baltimore has a distinction of operating the longest-running
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cease-fire replication and since the program's inception we have never needed to suspend operations because a lot of funding. we attribute the success of that to being housed within a city agency that has the capacity to obtain funding from a broad range of sources, federal and state grants as well as foundations come supports come and individuals. and the house of the doctor who is seen. the annual cost of implementing the monitoring in baltimore is approximately $500,000 per state. as a comparison to the cost of both financial and emotional shooting incidents the cease-fire model has saved many lives in baltimore. last year we were down to the lowest homicide rate since 1977, and i think pleased with the results and hope to be able to spread it into more areas. thank you. >> thank you. [applause]
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you are next. >> [inaudible] >> i am jennifer whitehill -- can you hear me? i'm here on behalf of the chairman we completed the independent scientific evaluation of the program. it's great to be here today to discuss the findings. what we found is that they had great success in reducing the member and swear was implemented with the lowest to the cease-fire model. i will focus on the four
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neighborhoods they operated between 2007 to 2010. the neighborhoods appear on the map in the green. later it was extended to other neighborhoods and madison east end. there is another in south baltimore in the neighborhood called cherry hill. the other areas are those that were in the top 25% for homicide and shootings. they also look of the neighborhood to see if there was a spillover in the result to those neighboring areas on the map in the blue. the program from the baltimore city police department. we compared that difference to
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the same time period in the similar neighborhoods and we made the same comparison for the border neighborhoods. we wanted to be sure to be attributed to something else so they controlled the baseline level of violence in the neighborhood come seasonal variations, drug arrests and policing activities that were also fused at the same time on reducing violent crime. what we found in terms of the homicide shootings relative to the comparison neighborhoods the times indicates they were significant. it's clear that homicide and a decrease in the non-failed shooting. it appears the positive effects spilled over into h adjacent communities. getting more complicated than baltimore initially the first
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one salles excellent results but they share the management team with the baltimore sites and by the time the program got going in madison east in the in that neighborhood it happened that a very long running game at the very same month the program that started and there was before the average worker who is describing had an opportunity to get in the community and influencing. an additional complication of some of the research from the park were directed away to words that situation. what we did find that they had a 52% reduction homicide during the months occupied and a whole other area. so, we didn't see homicide but there's with 34% reduction in the long field shooting. those results are the primary of country evaluation we also wanted to see if the program did anything to change the social
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norms about using gun violence to settle the dispute that is the period behind the programs we wanted to test it so we undertook a survey of young men in the park, young men and 18 to 24 year old age group and a similar neighborhood that didn't get the program. a survey on the survey indicated how they would be to use a gun in different scenarios that are considered a common stock for gun incidents and they found that in the guthrie part in the safest neighborhood the young men were four times more likely to express little or no support for using a gun after controlled for other factors. overall we found that this model can be replicated effectively and lead to impressive reductions of shootings but it's important that the model be implemented with - devotee. there's also evidence to support the cease-fire changes of the violence so that is the short and sweet violation and i would
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be happy to take any questions later. [applause] -- before, jennifer. next up is mitch landrieu. >> thank you so much and for your leadership on this issue. i'm enjoying working with you on the city's united. i want to say a couple things. we tend to get into these meetings and with the language gets a bit antiseptic so i'm going to change the for a moment mayor nutter 13,000 people were killed on the streets of america last year. the blows through this terminal of this room but let's let for the second, $13 people were killed on the streets of america last year. would you compare that to determine if that is okay or not? you might want to ask yourself how many people were killed in the first iraq war were the
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second or afghanistan and what you would find out is the 13,000 people every year for the last ten years dwarfs that number. we spent a trillion dollars plus on prosecuting the war, but the amount of money we spend on protecting american citizens on the streets of america is in a comparison to that. and the mayor told you that of 13,000 people were killed on the streets to make a 50% of them coming young african-american men between 15 to 24 the african-american population last time i checked was ten or 12%. so from those numbers a little bit in your head and ask what i means. what it means is young black men are being slaughtered on the streets of america. that's what that means. some people think that so little bit too harsh so let me prove my point to you. my city of new orleans for example has about 360,000
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people. 199 murders in the national average as a relates to murder. incidentally the atf, so there's a distinction between violence and murder and from a public health perspective we ought to see it that way but the statistics in new orleans are very similar to those we've seen in philadelphia, new york, chicago, baltimore, everywhere certain neighborhoods in the city's you have a young man being held sometimes 100 times the rate of the national average. this is a national epidemic, and it's not okay and we have to state that. we have to do everything to stop the carnage on the streets of america. there is a school in new orleans where five young men that coincidentally went to the school and got killed with them
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for five months of each other. we ran the numbers it was more likely for a kid that went to this high school to get killed than a soldier in afghanistan protecting our freedom. those are catastrophic numbers that cry out to us as a nation to fix. first we have to recognize that. one of the things we've been looking at is what makes people stand up and stop so i'm going to say two things the might upset you. first of the ku klux klan killed 200 young african-american men on the streets of america there would be hell to pay. the war would stop moving on the sun would stop shining and all of a sudden we would be having a serious talk. the other day my wife was listening to tom joyner, and
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there was an african-american female columnist on talking about half a report she read from a caucasian boulder -- border talking about chicago and this guy the was a caucasian said it 53 white people got shot in chicago over the weekend the president would stop what he's doing in the call the national guard and the same litany of things. basically you have a little racial disconnect where the african-american community says if you don't pay attention we are not going to the attention. so, it all gets down to it's not my fault. so here's the other thing we have to get our heads are now. not everybody is to blame, but we are all responsible and in the united states of america if we focus on a problem and put the resources behind it and analyze it the right way i think we can solve the problem but if
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it is something we want to get a major problem or national epidemic if it's not a priority we put the resources and the organization behind trying to understand. this is a deep problems of the city of new orleans for example ten times we went back and looked at it because of course people say you're not doing a good enough job their something wrong with your police chief and away you comb your hair. [laughter] and i agree with that. we went back and looked at the data and 1979, 1980 ronald reagan, jimmy carter, larry bird, alice cooper, we back when in the day we had an average of two wondered 41 murders every year on and on and on. some got better and some got worse but when you go back and look at the average what tells you it's a very deeply rooted
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problem that can only be dealt with as a public health of the neck. said the cease-fire model was built on the idea that is right. it is one of many tools we have to use to get to the problem, but unless we recognize it is deeply rooted in a lot of very serious things, we are not going to get there. the doctor used the word transmissible and i want to tell you a story and i will stay within my time. last week in the city of new orleans there was a birthday party for a 9-year-old boy taking place about 30 seconds from city hall in a residential neighborhood. three young men were driving down the street and they saw somebody they had been looking for on the porch. they got out of their car and one of them to an ak-47 and sprayed the neighborhood. when he finished spring the neighborhood, brianna allen who
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was five and whose cousin had her guts blumenauer on the porch, the 9-year-old got clipped. the bullet traveled three blocks down the road and hit the mother of three young malays and hit her in the head and killed her instantly. now, as you can imagine a very traumatic event for everybody that saw that and went through that the funeral was held, and then we had in new orleans a repast for everybody comes back to the house and we have these things called neutral ground. i know you don't have those, but it was the media and we were having fellowship with the family. walking towards neighbor to people that i had recognized. one of them was about authority-year-old african-american male and next to him as an african-american female, and as i walked up to him i recognized him. this man was the father of young african-american boys that had witnessed the death of a
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2-year-old three months earlier who got gunned down in the courtyard in the place she lived where 20 other kids were. ..
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>> that they don't have enough money to do this. "the new york times" reported last week, if it was accurate, that the united states of america and $8 billion spending of police departments in iraq and afghanistan. that may very well have been unnecessary expenditure, but it's hard for me to believe and understand of the mayor of an american city that is the point of that is to secure the homeland, by helping their security forces be secure, and we can't find to a way to bring that money full circle in partnership with state and local governments, and we don't have to rely on people and foundations to do it we should do ourselves, if we identify it and call the nation to focus on it and we say it is important to
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save the lives of young african-americans, we can and we know it's fixable. but it takes time and resources and money i am proud to say that we have cease-fire in new orleans. it is one of many things, but we have to say it is a national epidemic rate we will do everything we can to fix it. thank you very much. [applause] >> thank you, mayor. [applause] >> now you know why he is my partner. mayor ashley swearingen. >> mayor, well done. i just want to share a few things with you from our experience in fresno. as was mentioned we are not
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implementing the cease-fire program that has been presented this morning. from a law enforcement perspective, i will talk about that in just a moment. i am very compelled by the elements that we are missing in fresno and i am very eager to see how we can raise those in our community. i am extremely encouraged by what i see happening in our community. people standing up and saying enough is enough. interestingly enough, it is coming from mothers and fathers and grandparents. we have the fresno st. plan that was brought together by seven african-american pastors who knew each other throughout the point of the epidemic. in particular family events, one of the pastors lost his grandson in violence. the situation to that in which
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mayor mitch described. they were gathered for the funeral the family was there grieving and going through all of the normal processes. and they realized that they were running out of ice and milk all pray they sent to other grandkids down the street to the neighborhood store in to get a few items at the grocery store. as those children were walking to the corner store, one was gunned down. as a result of gang violence and unintentional crossfire. needless to say, this series of events sparked what has become a community revolution and transformation with many of
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these african-american grandfathers coming together and saying we can't wait anymore. we just can't. i had a mom in my office saying her son was going to criminal justice process and was involved in gang activity. she relayed to me that all of the moms were friends. in this particular rival gang situation. she could name all of these kids' moms. and she said that we were all friends in high school and now our sons are killing each other. i certainly share the passion that you see from these other terrific leaders in communities about understanding the points of addressing this. what has been going on in fresno from a law enforcement perspective, and i certainly appreciate that it is not the focus and the systemic solutions, nonetheless, it is extremely important that our law enforcement agencies are working in coordination with one
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another. so many times in government, the tools that we do have are not being strategically deployed as they can be. and they are diminishing in resources and we have to fix that problem. we have been working with david kennedy out of the boston area for a cease-fire. and we have begun to align every level of law enforcement to target 10%. those who are committing 9% of the violent acts in fresno. many of you have for heard this, but the signature feature of this program is the colin. were you invited you here. you hear from a spectrum of people who also missed a
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message, which is that the violence must stop. if you don't, you'll be locked away for many years that if you choose to stop, there are an array of resources available to help you. a group of service providers will come in and meet with the individuals and connect them with services and it is an attempt to help them begin the process process of connectivity they are involved in. we have been doing this for the last two years, and we have 316 people call then. only five have recommitted a federal or violent act. there has been a tremendous impact on at least jarring people's attention, and we have seen a tremendous reduction in violence. what i am inspired by this morning is the idea of raising up the interrupter spread i
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think this probably sounds like the hardest thing to implement and i am curious to hear from others on the panel, how do you go about finding people who can be effective in that capacity. what we have experienced in fresno is that those who have -- it is difficult to find those with the credibility needed to really fill that function. those who are willing, almost upon admitting they are willing to do it, they become less effective. it is difficult to get the credibility that they need. i am anxious to learn more about that see that ativan. i am also really curious about working with hospitals and finding out how to -- that is so clearly the right spot to intervene. you know, we typically have police officers all over the place. the violent acts that happened in anticipation of that. but we don't necessarily have the community asked to go along with that. >> thank you very much.
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now we will hear from jane lowe. >> thank you very much. i want to thank both mayor nutter and mayor landrieu and meir rawlings blake. and those who and find that there are many different pathways are for us to come together and solve this problem. i just want to put forward the importance of using effective solutions to solve this problem of gun violence in american cities. now, you might wonder why the largest health care foundation in the united states that is really devoted all of you who are npr fans have probably heard, brought to you by the robert wood johnson foundation, have designed to improve health
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and health care for all americans. you might wonder why we have an interest in reducing gun violence. it seems like it might be led to the province of law enforcement and criminal justice. that would be a fair question. but for us, we regard violence as a pressing public issue that strikes us at the heart of the community and well-being of individuals, families, and whole communities. disproportionately, it affects low income communities and burnable populations, as you have heard from everyone here, the young men of our cities. these are areas where the foundation has always played a very special emphasis. it goes without saying, that gun violence -- the toll of gun violence is very clear and we should not kid ourselves about this happening just in one neighborhood, in one city, or for neighborhoods in the city, and it does not affect the rest of us. the leaves me uncertain.
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it affects all of us. we need to remember whether we like it or not, we are deeply connected here. clearly, you have heard about the contagion of violence. we know from other works that we are doing around behavior and narrow science and the evidence that is rapidly emerging around brains and brain science, that this is an important issue. it is no exaggeration to say that gun violence is an epidemic. one shooting leads to another. i assume that nothing commands your attention more than a needless homicide as the lead story in your morning paper when you go to redecorate whether you are online are actually still get the paper.
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it is also clear, and this is where the narrow science comes in, that the physical and mental toll that takes place for people is not just among those who are affected or involved in acts of violence. in these neighborhoods that mayor mitch landrieu provided a great example about -- many examples of how people have been exposed to violence. and how the chronic instability in the neighborhood affects people in their lives. we know that when a child is exposed to violence, that has very long-lasting impacts on their lives. this is what the science is called toxic stress. this toxic stress could wire or rewire a child's relationships, have less good relationships,
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their progress in school, and that can result in disease and damage. economic violence is borne out by silence. it requires a public health approach that interrupts the spread of violence, much as the way as jerry described, seeking to interrupt the spread of infectious diseases. it is a risk of being redundant. the cease-fire model works. that was our hypothesis 10 years ago when we began our investigation. since then, the foundation has committed nearly $10 million to develop tests and spread the model and tell the story that you were hearing today. our most recent investment was to develop for them a business plan and strengthen the organization capacity for replication.
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and provide the technical assistance is that is available to all of you across the country to help replicate this model. we know that the technical assistance is bearing fruit because of the visions of mayors like those who are with us today. these mayors and others were opened to solutions. ones that have to be explained to a skeptical public, but this makes bottom-line economic sense because of gun violence under violent content undermines the fabric of life in the community. it is a cost strain through depressed housing values, no job creating investment and exceptionally high use of police and emergency rooms services. it opens the door to strengthen the community and make them healthy.
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it strengthens them in ways that are fundamental to health and vitality. businesses, jobs, housing and so on. while we have committed significant amounts to the cease-fire model, the reality is that any philanthropic resources to topple such a vast problem are entirely insufficient. it is on the list and to think that we will support this work and definitely. other partners, including you, as mayors, need to come on board based on the evidence and track record, and help spread a model that works. we can do this together. we don't want to wait any longer. we cannot afford to watch any longer. because the payoffs are are enormous. fewer shootings and killings, revitalized neighborhoods, and they fundamentally healthier future for the people and communities that you lead is the vision and certainly it is a goal. thank you very much.
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[applause] >> what a great, great panel. we want to thank all of our panelists for their presentations on this very important topic. we want to open the floor to the mayors in the room. on a brief note and certainly to recognize the work. in philadelphia we have shown that there is a movie called the interrupter's. was it two hours? >> yes. >> we have had a number of showings in this film is very powerful and compelling, but also, very clearly it tells the story about what is really going on in chicago. quite frankly, you could watch the movie, close your eyes for a few minutes, and be in any city in the united states of america,
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and as i mentioned a number of times, we have shown it and plan to show it during the course of the school year in a variety of places all across the city of philadelphia. with that, mayors in the room, if there are questions and comments, concerns, please just raise your hands and we will make sure that we get to you. >> thank you, mayor michael nutter. >> my name is michael hancock from colorado. we were just talking here that this model makes sense. as he talked about earlier, we all freak out. that is the kind of model you are talking about. one of the things that i have struggled with, personally and professionally with, some of this violent behavior on the street is the psychological
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long-term damage that has been done, especially with african-american males that has been played out by the sound. the question is how do we begin to reverse that. once you get beyond making this and unacceptable norm, and by the way, bill cosby brought this to bear on the latest incident that we saw. >> there is something psychological, when an african-american boy says it's okay. when they take their lives. some of you could comment on that. i think that really has to be the next challenge in this disease that pervades the neighborhood.
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>> i will just give you another statistic that will scare you a little bit. in new orleans, 80% of the men actually know each other. >> not they oftentimes not know each other, but on any given week, on a monday, you could have a person who is the perpetrator engage in some criminal activity and by friday, that same person is a victim. most of the folks involved in criminal activity or involved in violent crime. in the 70 to 80% coverage for both, have criminal records and multiple arrests and are all in the game. so the overwhelming majority of violent crime in most cities in america is committed by relatively small groups of people who are all chasing each other around one day they are
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perpetrators come the next day they are victims, and many have been shot minute and 10 multiple times. thanks to science and medicine, many are survivors in this circumstance. you get a sense sometimes that this criminal activity that is going on, it is not random. these folks all know each other. this is about something that happened two weeks ago with somebody else. brother, cousin, nephew, friend, my man, my boy, and they are all just chasing each other around. >> let me just say that my intent is to be here after the session and i will be here all day today. my e-mail is available for communication as well. in the context of your question,
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i want to really remind everyone, the businesses transmissible with mayor mitch landrieu and what he has said, it is really not a metaphor anymore. the signs of this is really solid. that is what the institute of medicine workshop really landed on. but it really is infectious and we really have fundamentally misdiagnosed this problem. it is a very important and central concept that we have been misreading this because we misdiagnosed it. we need more into this effort, of course. my original diagnosis, with which was people didn't care enough or that there wasn't enough money in it, it is not really that. it is really that we have not been applying the right approaches and malaria gets blocked. we came up with these a remedy.
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this problem has really been fundamentally misdiagnosed. with respect to the issue of the business of trauma, trauma is in effect and are caused of this. so what is really important to realize that severe punishment and threats of punishment, as if everybody has not had enough of that already, the population of african american young men, as if they haven't been threatened and head a lot, punishment has negative consequences on the brain and causes more trauma and dysregulation. and we have a lesson for income as we now understand that, and we know much more about than we
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did 10 or 15 years ago. the frontal lobe is not yet pruned and they are not worrying about the consequences. when we said they did not care, they are wire not care. adolescents are wired to go out into the world and protect things and do things and change the world. what they care about is what their friends think. that is the way we are revolutionary wired. furthermore, they need risk. they need risk to feel normal. not even that is regulated ones. the way that we see this in terms of using the science for this, in order to reduce the trauma in order to reduce the
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trauma, we have to reduce it. reduce the trauma that is happening, which means stopping shooting as fast as we can. part one, you have to interrupt and cool the situation down. it isn't a long-term solution. this message gets resolved part two is shipped to the norm. not that it all has to be done sequentially. we absolutely have to be done to put into place some kind of treatment. professionalize mental health care for people who are repeatedly traumatized. we are not treating the workers themselves. there are methods for that but we need to talk about. but they are our new interventions.
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we will always bring it to scale. but we are really not being honest if we are just not stopping the cause of the trauma. and the aggressive stuff going on. >> i just want to say one thing about this, please enter the mayor of denver. there is a position named john rich who is working very hard of these issues on the impact of trauma on young man. and i would encourage you to take a look at his work focusing on trauma informed care. how do you, once you keep preventing the killing from happening -- have you begun to engage with these men around the
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deep issues of trauma. i will also say that from the philanthropy community now, there is a lot of activity happening around addressing the needs of young men of color in this country. at the robert wood johnson foundation, we focused on numerous foundations across the country, looking at this, along with the developmental spectrum, and that really has to not only deal with this issue of violence, but going back upstream and why are we creating pathways for success, where are the structural barriers and issues here. so while we are focused very much on the issue of violence and it is big and it is powerful, we also have to remember that the solutions lie upstream as well.
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backup across sectors. it is very important that public health, education, employment, the business community, all of us have a fate in making the lives of our young people, young men of color, young women, making them better. we have to think about this is gary talked about as big intersecting circles and really work within our community to gather up all the organizations that are one way or another coming out at this problem from different points of view. >> just a couple of things to follow up. immediate interruptions, like you have to stop the shooting right now, it doesn't matter where you are going, you have to stop the shooting and that his interruption. transmission -- she said when you get really upstream on this thing, when we really bring this
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thing forward, the same place we buried a 16-year-old boy who was killed about three months earlier -- two days after her funeral, i hosted a free lunch program in that church. where, by the way, a lot of us have a lot of free lunch is on the table because we partner with our recreation department and we are now serving a lot more meals. we brought those kids in for breakfast. i had a table. of 235-year-olds. i cannot help but look at them and think, where are you going to be? as mike was talking about, these kids who know each other and are killing each other and are all in the game, one of the great dangers, saying i can't touch that, that's not me. they were not always thugs. one day they were 5-year-olds sitting at that table.
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on the issue of interruption, if we don't change what we are doing now, what happens between five and 16 years old for those young men. they will be doing the same thing. what are the upstream and downstream convictions that have to be changed so we don't keep producing the same outcome that we have now. cease-fire is like putting a plug it into the dyke. doing a lot more than that. we've got to get way down and way early and change the conditions we don't have those problems for the same kids tenders for not. >> mayor, two quick questions. is this powerpoint available? question two, in our city, we are having some challenges with witnesses [inaudible]
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can you share with us how money can be dealt with. >> could you repeat that? >> that is a crude term. but you get it. could you help us understand how you are dealing with this in your respective cities. we would appreciate it. thank you. >> sure. you know, there has been this -- on the first question, i am sure that this would be powerpoint available to everyone. in philadelphia -- something that is referred to as no snitching. and witness intimidation. we have had a couple of bad situations. in many instances, folks, again, folks and many in instances in
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neighborhoods, everybody knows everybody, friends and family and friends of friends and associates, all the rest goes with it. somebody shoots down somebody else. folks in the neighborhood know. and it is no big mystery here. all these folks talk because they could not keep their mouths shut if their lives depended on it. unfortunately, they will not call the police. they don't want to deal with that system we will deal with this ourselves. we go back to the work of those and others and you really do have to cool back down and move immediately. often, starting at the hospital, where the one who got shot. and then there are all kinds of
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language that is not appropriate for this conference of mayors. you really do have to chill that out immediately, whether it is at the hospital or the neighborhood and all the other components that go with it. it really does make a difference having people on the ground and in the neighborhood who are prepared to stand up and step up. that is what this is really all about. until we do that, in many instances, we put -- in philly, a couple of months ago, 100 most wanted folks on the city's cable access channel in the city's website. in two weeks, 21 of those folks have either been arrested, turned themselves in, or we got information on where they were. people really do want -- everybody wants to be safe.
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we have some folks that are not engaged in the common ways that we might be. but we have to provide them an opportunity, and in some instances, use the same thing with young that the young people use great social media, texting, anonymous opportunities to give information and get the stuff out so that we can do our jobs. but i think this attitude continues to be a major challenge in many places. but we have to give people a sense of hope and also that they will be protected and not subject to retaliation themselves. >> yes, sir, coming right down there. we have a microphone at her. >> good morning, i am the mayor of hempstead, new york. and i just want to pose a couple quiz questions. and wednesday, i went to the nassau county da meeting.
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what i want to know is how you determine intellect and have used remember that? >> people to work with you on cease-fire. >> in baltimore, not all of them have been in the game. -- that is out of my way. another work i know the work of it and i can explain it, but i wouldn't be speaking with any credibility on the streets in some of these neighborhoods. they need people who have been where they have been. so that is -- the benefit of that is when you get that person, you are able to get the results. the challenges, making sure that that person is out of the game.
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>> completely. i want to add to this since there are so many mayors here. our experience in watching cities, they try to do this on their own, ordinarily, it is not so exactly likely that people are going to be selecting the right people on their own. we have a a lot of experience in helping ms. there is criteria for this, and research to be done in the neighborhood on us. because you need to determine what is actually going on in this neighborhood either five groups were three groups, is a random stuff, what is going on here? and who do we need to hire to interact with these various groups or whatever. who knows them. point by point we have to go through an actual systematic process of determining who has
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that rolodex and who has both of his or her feet on the side of the line now. not a toenail over there. and, they are hungry to do the work and they can do the work. there is a whole -- and then they are not random. good luck, the city in that city. no, they have to be part of a system being supervised with monitoring and support and training. there is a whole training program that i did not get into for outreach workers so they can do persuasion undo behavior change and they can do other changes. no, they need to be the right person and properly trained. >> we should get in touch with you. >> right. [applause] >> that ends up being the bottom
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line. >> good morning. i am the city of west palm beach mayor. can you talk to us a little bit about the implementation process where to start and how long it takes in, you know, a little bit more specifics about that? >> let me get mayor stephanie rawlings-blake. >> in the presentation, it was really a blueprint for the way we were handling it. first come you have to identify the areas, and we do this all the time. we identify where we have neighborhoods that have historic violence. you have to identify those intense dots on on the map. after you do that, then you have to make sure that in those areas, and one of the areas that we first talked about, there was a lot of violence, but also strong community groups there.
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so you have to have all those things, you have to have been fortunate part, which is the violence, and you have to have that community group that is able to do something and wants to do something that is in a fight with you. sometimes you can do them with the most simple potential interrupter straight i would encourage anybody who is interested to learn from the mistakes of other students, which is -- it's not something -- you can't take the powerpoint renderer. you need to make sure that you are sticking to the model. it is the same way -- when we are talking about the public health issue. you can listen to a lecture from a doctor and start diagnosing people. you have to work with the professionals that developed the program to get the results that you want. it is only through strict
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adherence to the model we are getting the result. you have to figure out in your city how we can get that strict adherence. we try in different ways, and it is the work of the health department. making sure that we are sticking with the model. >> we are going to take a couple of questions. we have a little bit of time, but this is obviously a very recent discussion and it is a point of privilege. something that mitch landrieu reference, he and i and a number of other mayors, a lot of folks are taking notes and you might want to take this down. in september of 2000 one, in new york, washington, and central
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pennsylvania in the field, 2977 people were killed. horrific attack on the united states of america and there has been an incredible response to that. blaster, there were 515 homicides in new york city. sixty-three in boston. 108 in washington dc. 196 in baltimore, 323 in los angeles, 199 in new orleans, 433 in chicago, 87 in atlanta. 344 in detroit. ninety-one in newark. 198 in houston in 147 in memphis. the top five cities in the united states of america. don't bother doing the math. it was 2981. in 13 cities last year. even though crime has generally been going down, we want to know how many people in those cities
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total were killed over the last 10 years multiplied by 10. what happened as a result of 9/11. the government created a physician, and homeland security, unless you are from orlando, every one of you had an experience with the tsa, transportation security administration and you almost have to take your clothes off to get on an airplane. fine, everybody is safe, and it's cool. i said in a speech in tallahassee, the tsa, the transportation security administration, but in the united states of america, what we need is the wea essay. the walking around security administration. we need to be as safe as our
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cities as we want to be flying anywhere in the united states or around the world. we change security procedures for how you fly in the world, as a result of that horrific incident on one day. last year 13 cities, more people were killed. i want to be safe flying and i want to be safe walking. that is what we need to focus on. >> yes, sir? >> first of all, i appreciate greatly all of you sharing your thoughts on the program. my question is with a bit of a statement ahead of that, unfortunately, not are premised on a big-city issue. it's in every city issue.
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for communities of less than 50,000, can this program work? >> we are working with some smaller communities, including some online. it works best when there is a serious problem. >> next question? >> yes, ma'am? >> good morning, karen clayman wilson from indiana. i know that my team has been talking to your team. i have a question. because there are a lot of similarities that i have been involved with over the last 10 years. there are a lot of similarities in terms of changing the norm and other aspects. my question is in terms of colleagues in the medical field, a lot of the movement and drug analysis in terms of drug
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addition addiction as a disease, came as a result of the medical world. are you having that same success among your colleagues and physicians to look at violence is a public health issue? i think that the more of them that do, the more success you will have. and the other question is how involved is the community in terms of being involved in the cease-fire initiative that is underway. i heard in fresno that they actually started the program. but how involved is the community in terms of what is happening with cease-fire? >> i will just take the first part of this. i am glad you are here and we hope to you working with you and we love to be. and we are where aware of the
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problems. the health community need to be much more involved to help directors, the public, the directors, they really need to step up. they have not actually known until this model, that there was a place for them on the serious violence. the people control the issues in this way. they have been involved in work related to younger children and school bullying and things like that. there is a place for them and we need to help directors to begin to step up as baltimore has, to begin to -- and others -- to take a very active role here. not only is there a place for them, but the face of this issue needs to change. change to help matters so that
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positive helpful, supportive, effective treatment can be applied or added to what else is there. >> it has been a key component of what we have been doing in fresno, and we have networks of churches throughout the city -- with various organizations, we have various groups as well as different religions and ethnicities that come together. in addition to three things, which i mentioned, which now does a lot of community prevention outreach work for us, our police department initiated a relationship in the historically most dangerous part of the city in southwest fresno.
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we meet every week with the police department end-stage a range of an outraged, starting in southwest fresno and moving to southeast and central fresno. you know, they are very small churches. it doesn't have to be mega-churches and their main focus. most churches are very small. but as they come together, they are very much having the relationships that are needed by the grandmas and grandma's and grandpa's and guardians and others that are involved of the people that we are trying to impact. >> i am getting the serious signal. this has been a most engaging conversation. i want to thank all of our panelists and i also want to mention two mayors and others that it is important, of course, as mayors, we need to continue to advocate for and push for support from our federal partners, our good friend
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shannon is from the back and the cops office. very important. certainly, we see her and make sure that we have our voices heard as mayors and leaders with regard to law enforcement, police department, as good as any of them are, they cannot and will not be the only answer to this particular challenge. this is a community based challenge and solutions and some of the activities that you hear from very. mayor mitch landrieu, michael nutter, stephanie rawlings-blake, gary slutkin, making the city is the safest places. we want to thank our panelists very much for being here. [applause] >> thank you. thank you very much. [inaudible conversations]
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>> on the countdown to the convention, gavel to gavel were coverage from tampa, florida. the week after, live coverage from the democratic convention in charlotte, north carolina. on monday, rnc chairman bryant's previous represents the party platform for the delegates to prove. and a roll call vote on not nominating mitt romney for president and paul ryan for vice president. >> thank you, linda, i just want
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to talk about what the police department has done to prepare for this event. but before i do this, i want everyone to know that the first element of any event and deployment is that we cover the neighborhood. we want to make sure that we cover every element of the neighborhood. the rnc has been different than that. we use all of the officers in addition to that to function within each area. this takes 3400 to 4000 police officers to secure an event of this magnitude. obviously, we don't have that number within hillsborough county or the tampa bay area. we have partnered with other law enforcement agencies throughout the state to come here and assist us with this event. now, there are actually two events that are going on. you have the political event
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inside the security zone, and that is controlled by matt miller and the secret service. that process is to elect a candidate for presidency. then you have the event on the outside of the secure zone that we are responsible for. that is where people will be able to come and express their viewpoint. both of those processes are equally as important, and it is our job to ensure that everyone has a safe platform on which to express their views. the community oriented policemen is not a philosophy. it is not a division or bureau within the tampa police department. it is our way of life. a way of life that defines the tampa police department. that is the way we have been able to reduce crime over the last few years. we have been able to reduce crime by 63% and auto theft by
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91%. we have done after a community approach. we are going to use the same approach with the rnc. all of you have seen a map of the events in the event zone. within the event zone, it will be broken down into four smaller geographic areas, each of those geographic areas will be overseen by a commander from the tampa police department or the hillsborough county sheriff's office. within those areas, there will be a smaller geographic areas, several blocks where officers will be assigned to. everybody will get to know them. the business owners, the residents, they will get to know the officers in that area, and the officers will be able to get to know their areas as well. we obviously have the ability to expand and contract upon that. if we have issues in a particular area, we have the
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ability to send officers there. i will show you a photograph on the next light of the uniforms that you will see. i know everybody loves this beautiful 100% polyester uniform that we use, but we are going to be using a khaki colored uniform that is cotton, and the reason that we chose that is twofold. it is cooler for the officers. number two, it is more approachable. it has a friendlier look so that people won't hesitate to come forward to the police officers and approach them. the crowd management dear is referred to as the turtle care. we will use that when we have an issue of public safety or a large crowd when they have to deal with. it is our hope that no one will see that, but that is probably unrealistic on our part. our job is to identify
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individuals that are bent on destruction for destruction and remove them from the crowd as quickly as possible so that we can restore that peaceful environment in which individuals can demonstrate. the vast majority of individuals that are coming to tampa to express their point of view and demonstrate are going to do so peacefully. there will be a small group that will be, as i said, bent on destruction and we will deal with those individuals. we have done a great deal to communicate with all levels of individuals that are involved with the rnc. we have had meetings with the business managers and building managers in the downtown area. we have worked with several individuals to try to communicate exactly what we will be seeing and what to expect.
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we've also communicated with individuals who are coming to tampa, florida, to demonstrate. we have participated on two panels with the aclu. and i produced an hour and a half webinar dealing with the rnc that was hosted by the aclu. brinkley, the aclu was telling everyone that they do not support any criminal activity and their expectation is that everyone will follow or abide by the lawful orders as a police officer. they also said that there would be individuals in the crowd whose job is to excite everyone into taking action. they caution individuals throughout the hour and a half to not get involved and not. it is our job to ensure that everyone has this time and get to express their viewpoints.
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we have a parade route that we know that there will be spontaneous event. we are communicating with those individuals as well so we can develop a process that will be advantageous to everyone. we certainly do expect that as well. here is the uniforms that i talked about. on the left, which you will see on a day-to-day basis, and on the bottom is what we affectionately refer to as turtle dear. we have done a great deal of training for the rnc. officers get 10 days of training. we have intensive training that is put on by the department of homeland security, and that involves three days of training that every officer that is involved in the crowd management and they have gone through that. we have also done a great deal of training on the philosophy of enforcement and the first amendment training.
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when i called the golden rule in the police department is that everyone is treated with dignity and respect. everyone. there is no exception to that rule. that is the same thing with the rnc. honestly, we are reinforcing this with all of the officers that are coming to assist us. this isn't your everyday police affair. the officer deals one-on-one with witnesses or victims, suspects, grew policing, the officers will be expected to act as a group on the commanders instructions and not act individually. we have trained all of the supervisors and commanders and
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let them know that we have set the bar very high end of expectations of their leadership are indicative that they are doing sure the officers are showing restraint and they bring in an extra supply with them and they act only on the commanders orders. and that they take the message that they reinforce the tone of philosophy of enforcement for the rnc and every officer that is coming here, and is as if that wasn't enough, we want to make sure that that was stuck with every officer, so we have an e-learning test that all of the officers have been obligated to complete and pass. we have done a great deal of training. we believe everyone will be prepared. frankly, everyone is prepared. to ensure that it is reflecting on the city of tampa.
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>> the republican convention starts in tampa, florida at 2:00 p.m. eastern. with live coverage on c-span. your front row seat to the convention. the united states and taiwan have presidential elections this year. the leadership transition is also scheduled in china. yesterday at the hart senate office building on capitol hill, the center for national policy hosted a discussion on litigation between the two countries. ..
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